Tennis
2026-03-15 - Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : ATP 1000 Indian Wells Final
Sunday 15th March 2026 - Scheduled 2pm
9pm (British Time)
Preview
The win over Carlos Alcaraz will have given Daniil Medvedev a huge amount of confidence and has also maintained what has been a really strong run of form being produced by the World Number 11.
He now takes aim at winning back to back titles and arguably the biggest one anyone can win outside of the Grand Slams when competing for the Indian Wells trophy.
Daniil Medvedev served really well in the Semi Final win and he is going to have to do the same if he is going to put together a rare tournament in which a player beats the top two players in the world in back to back matches.
Beating Carlos Alcaraz means Daniil Medvedev is more than capable of winning this Final, but there will be a lot of respect for the way Jannik Sinner is playing and the World Number 2 produced a dominant win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final.
No one is going to be surprised to read that Jannik Sinner has been serving well, but it is the aggressive performance on the return that has proved to be the key to the Italian reaching his first Final of the 2026 season. This week Sinner has broken in almost 40% of return games played and dealing with the very solid Alexander Zverev serve will mean he is not intimidated by what Daniil Medvedev can produce.
Jannik Sinner began his career by losing the first six matches against Daniil Medvedev, but he has now won eight of the last nine matches, including the last three in a row.
Eight wins in a row have been produced on the hard courts and Jannik Sinner would have covered what looks like a big line in the last four hard court matches played in a best of three set format.
During this eight match winning run on the hard courts, Jannik Sinner has held 90% of his service games compared with Daniil Medvedev's 75% mark and that is a significant difference.
Respect has to be given to Daniil Medvedev for the current level being produced, but it is still a little short of the standard being set by Jannik Sinner and the latter can win the Indian Wells title with a solid looking success on the scoreboard.
Prediction
Lay the games with the World Number 2 as Jannik Sinner looks to continue his dominance of this rivalry with Daniil Medvedev.
The Pick :
Daniil Medvedev 0-2 Jannik Sinner
