Tennis
2010-02-25 - Jurgen Melzer vs Marin Cilic
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis: United Arab Emirates, ATP Dubai, Singles
Thursday 25th February 2010 - Start 10:00 GMT
Preview
Jurgen Melzer continues his fine start to the new season here as he contests another Quarter Final, his 4th of the season so far. He will be hoping to convert more of these opportunities into Semi Final berths, something he has only completed once from 3 previous chances this season.
The Austrian left-hander is a very talented player but seems to lack the mental ability to close out tight matches. He has the big serve and, with the Doubles background, usually follows it up with good volleys. Melzer has moved up to number 31 in the World Rankings and will be hoping to enter the top 30 when the new rankings are released on Monday.
Melzer has started the season with a 9-5 record and will be hoping to continue his good form from the indoor hard courts as we transfer onto the outdoor hard courts. He has a 30-26 record on the hard courts since 2008. The Austrian has beaten Simone Bolelli and Tommy Robredo in straight sets this week and he has only lost his serve once.
Marin Cilic came through a tougher than expected 2nd round match with Stefan Koubek yesterday and did not seem to enjoy the temperatures that get up on court during their 2pm local time start. Unfortunately, he faces the same time for this match against an opponent he should be familiar with.
The Croatian will have some concern with his serve after losing it 3 times in the 2nd set against Koubek. He was making far too many errors as well and it does make me wonder if he is a little fatigued mentally. It was a similar issue in his first match with Arnaud Clement as Cilic struggled a little more on his own serve in the 2nd set after looking very comfortable in the 1st.
Cilic beat both Arnaud Clement and Stefan Koubek in straight sets.
Head to Head
These two players have met 5 times in the last 2 seasons and Marin Cilic leads the head to head 4-1.
They have met twice on hard courts and Cilic has won both of those meetings although every match has been tight.
Their most recent meeting was 3 weeks ago in Zagreb where Cilic won 7-6, 6-4 on an indoor court.
Prediction
Jurgen Melzer can cause a lot of problems for someone like Cilic as he will rush the net and force players to come up with passing shots regularly. When he serves well, he can prove to be as near to unbreakable and he seems to be serving well here in Dubai this week.
Marin Cilic might just begin to wither in the heat judging by his 2nd set performances this week and he will again be the first man on court. He has struggled against Melzer in the past and I can see this match needing a couple of tie breakers to settle things.
I think Cilic will sneak through in another tight battle. It is possible that this will go to 3 sets so I will recommend Melzer with the games on the handicap.
Cilic to win 7-6, 6-4
The Pick :
Marin Cilic win 7-6, 6-4
BEST BETTING TIP :
Marin Cilic WIN
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Jurgen Melzer + 4.5 games @ 2 (Bet365)
