Tennis
2010-04-16 - David Ferrer vs Philipp Kohlschreibe
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis: ATP Masters Monte Carlo Quarter Final
Friday 16th April 2010 - Start 9:30am GMT
Preview
This is an interesting Quarter Final between 2 players that are both fairly accustomed to the clay courts and with a big prize on offer in a Masters event that may not come around too often.
David Ferrer is the World Number 17 and perhaps the person who has made the most of his talent out of anyone in the top 100 today and in recent memory. He once famously described himself as the 'worst player in the top 100' but his work ethic and determination must be admired.
The Spaniard has been accustomed to playing on the clay courts from a young age and will start as the clear favourite in the match. He has come through 3 rounds here, beating Peter Luczak, Andrey Golubev and Ivan Ljubicic. Ferrer had made a shaky start against Luczak but his performances have improved after each match and culminated in a dominant win over Ljubicic, the recent winner of the Masters event at Indian Wells.
Ferrer will be confident of winning this match after only dropping his own serve 3 times this week (once in each match) and he has been particularly effective in his returning game, winning close to 50% of the points in each match.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is the German Number 1 and has perhaps got further in this tournament this week than he may have imagined as it was considered that he was carrying a little injury. However, after taking part in the Doubles earlier in the week, he has made an effective run in the Singles.
The German currently resides as the World Number 33 but can expect his ranking to go up regardless of the result of this match. He had a tight win over Thomaz Bellucci in the 1st round before crushing Andy Murray and comfortably beating fellow German Phillip Petzschner.
Kohlschreiber lost serve 6 times in his opening match against Bellucci but has since protected it very well, facing only 2 break points in his next 2 matches. He has performed well against his opponents' serve and played an unbelievably good game against Murray in round 2.
The 2 players have met 7 times previously and Ferrer holds a 4-3 lead. Their last meeting was on a hard court over a year ago when Ferrer was an easy winner in 2 sets.
They have met twice on clay courts and each player has 1 win apiece.
Prediction
This is a really close match, in my opinion, between 2 players that can both perform on clay courts on their day. David Ferrer is the more solid and reliable, but Philipp Kohlschreiber can be a tough player to halt when he picks up momentum.
I have a feeling the match may need to be decided by a 3rd set here and feel Ferrer will pull through as he is more consistent and can extract the errors from Kohlschreiber.
I think Kohlschreiber could gain fire at any time and rally a few games in a row and so I will pick the German to cover the game handicap set out.
The Pick :
David Ferrer in 3
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Philipp Kohlschreiber +3.5 games at 2.00 (PaddyPower)
