NBA Basketball
2012-05-17 - Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Semi Final
Thursday 17 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
This Semi Final series has suddenly got very interesting as the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers split the first two games down in South Beach, while the momentum is with the underdog as they took the last of those games.
Miami missed the presence of Chris Bosh about as much as they were expected to, although they still had their chances to win that game and move to a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. While some will be critical of LeBron James, an easy target in my opinion, it was a couple of key misses from Dwyane Wade and a lack of anything from the supporting cast that cost them the game.
Granted, James did miss a couple of key free throws down the stretch, but the bigger problem is the fact no other Heat player outside of James and Wade scored more than 5 points. It is a key for the Heat, who will miss Chris Bosh throughout this series at the very least, they get production from other players. It was that production that helped them take game 1 in the second half after Bosh was withdrawn from the game.
A key statistic that shows the 'others' are struggling is the fact that Miami are just 1-22 from beyond the arc in the series.
As you can see from what I have written, most of the questions from the first two games have been about the ability of the Heat to overcome an injury to a key player. Indiana themselves want to ride the momentum they gained from game 2 and they will look to play a similar brand of basketball where they try and take away James and Wade and force someone else to beat them.
However, don't be thinking the Pacers are just happy with what they have done so far. They have really struggled offensively to find any sort of consistency against a solid Miami defence, although it was a big run in the third quarter that provided the foundations for the win on Tuesday.
Head to Head
Indiana have now improved to 2-4 against Miami this season, splitting the series 3-3 against the spread, while also being aware that they are now 3-1 in the last 4 games.
The Pacers entertained Miami twice this season, splitting the series both straight up and against the spread.
Indiana won the last game here, but they had lost 4 in a row before that, both straight up and against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Indiana are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Miami are just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Miami Heat recover home court advantage in this game for the following reasons:
First, Indiana have not been that great in this spot this season when people are actually giving them a real chance of winning the game. They are just 1-2 against the spread as the home underdog being given 3 points or less.
Second, the first two games were actually both winnable for Miami and they will have felt a little disappointed they lost the second. However, they are the type of team that will realise they can beat the Pacers without Chris Bosh and will make the adjustments to ensure a third player gets their points tonight.
Third, the Heat have generally bounced back when they have been upset, going 9-7 against the spread in their next game. The Pacers are 6-7 against the spread when they have won as a dog.
Fourth, when the road team has lost game 2, they are 15-4 against the spread in this spot since 1991.
Fifth, Indiana have a record that has seen them win at least 60% of their home games. Teams with that record are 14-29-1 against the spread as the hosts of game 3 since 1991.
The Pick :
Indiana Pacers 83-86 Miami Heat
