NBA Basketball
2012-05-17 - LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Thursday 17 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It was no surprise to see the San Antonio Spurs win game 1 of this Semi Finals series in the Western Conference, but all the credit in the World should be heaped on the LA Clippers for the fight and tenacity they showed despite only finishing their First Round series a couple of nights earlier.
The Clippers hung with the Spurs for the first half, but the extra freshness in San Antonio, who had a prolonged rest following a First Round sweep of the Utah Jazz, allowed the Spurs to move away and take a 16 point win.
Both Chris Paul and Tony Parker really struggled as the defences concentrated on ensuring that they would not be beaten by those players. However, the Spurs definitely have the more consistent shooters from the perimeters and that was the difference. Leaving Tim Duncan on his own was also not the brightest move the Clippers have ever made.
Blake Griffin continues to play through the pain for the Clippers that will be playing their seventh game in 13 days and are also going to have to play a back to back on Saturday and Sunday as three Los Angeles teams are all in Play Off action over the weekend.
Griffin has said he will keep playing, but is 'mindful' of how his injury is feeling so that he doesn't leave too much on the court too early. With Paul also a little banged up, this is a tough time for the Clippers who don't really want to be in a 2-0 hole going back to the Staples Center.
Head to Head
San Antonio now lead the season series 3-1, both straight up and against the spread.
The Spurs improved to 2-1 at home, again both straight up and against the spread.
They have now won 18 of the last 19 times they have hosted the Clippers at home and they improved to 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 in the series.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio have now won their last 11 games against the spread when set as the home favourite of 11 points or greater.
They are 13-2-2 against the spread in their last 17 games following a double-digit win.
They are 21-4-2 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
LA Clippers are 7-17 against the spread in their last 24 games as the road underdog of 11 points or greater.
Prediction
I am going to steer clear of the handicaps because it is large enough that a backdoor cover could be the key in this one. The Clippers also showed enough in game 1 to think they can push the Spurs in this one and instead I will take the Over 194 Points option for the following reasons:
First, the Over is actually 9-1 in the last 10 games between these teams in Texas, including in each of the last 5 and game 1 of this series.
Second, all 4 games between the Clippers and the Spurs in 2012 have gone over this mark, with at least one of the teams cracking the 100 point mark.
Third, both teams have decent perimeter shooters and from beyond the arc and that is always likely to lead them to be involved in high-scoring games. The fact that neither plays stellar defence can only help our cause.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 113-100 LA Clippers
