Olympique Lyonnais v Liverpool
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Wednesday, 4th November 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

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Olympique Lyon (France)

Lyon have a simple task tonight, avoid defeat against Liverpool and ensure qualification for the knockout phase.

So far it's been plain sailing for Lyon, with a 1-0 home win over Fiorentina, and away wins over Debreceni (4-0) and Liverpool (2-1) easing the French champions to the top of the group.

But Lyon have not had it so easy at home in France. Domestically Lyon slipped to a couple of defeats in the last three weeks, including a 4-1 thrashing in Nice.

Lyon have scored just two goals in their last three league games, not quite the attacking tour-de-force that the bookmakers might have punters thinking.

Olympique Lyon Team News :
Out : Anderson (knee, calf, shoulder), Jean-Alain Boumsong (groin), Mathieu Bodmer (groin), François Clerc (knee)

Doubtful : Anthony Réveillère (groin)

Liverpool (England)

It's tough times at Anfield right now, as the Reds have lost six games from the last seven matches, and that's the sort of record that puts the manager of ANY big club under a lot of pressure.

Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez has had to deal with the absence of his two best players as both Gerrard and Torres struggle to recover from injuries, but still it's not good enough.

Of course the one victory in this sequence was a 2-0 home win over Manchester United in the Premier League, proof that Liverpool can rise to the occasion - but the truth also is that this might be a tougher test.

However, we should bear in mind that Benitez does seem to rank the Champions League ahead of the Premier League in terms of winnable targets (and maybe he is correct in that judgement) and so I expect to see the strongest possible side take the field including Torres.

Liverpool Team News :
Out : Steven Gerrard (groin), Albert Riera (hamstring), Martin Kelly (ankle), Martin Škrtel (muscle), Glen Johnson (calf), Fábio Aurélio (calf)

Doubtful : Fernando Torres (groin), Alberto Aquilani (virus), Daniel Agger (back), David Ngog (ankle)

Head to head

Surprisingly, Lyon's 2-1 win at Anfield was the first meeting between the two clubs but both sides have played other teams from the same country.

Lyon have a 1-4-1 home record vs English clubs, with the win coming over Tottenham Hotspur in the 1967 UEFA Cup, and the loss was a 0-1 defeat to Arsenal in the 2001 Champions League.

Liverpool have played French clubs 11 times in France, and the Liverpool record is a surprisingly poor 5-0-6 return.

However, Liverpool have won on their last four trips - beating Marseille 2-1 in 2008, and 4-0 in 2007. And Liverpool have also beaten Toulouse 4-0 in 2007, and Bordeaux 1-0 in 2006.

The Betting Verdict

Once again, the recent results of Liverpool are poor and this is negatively affecting the punters impressions of the Reds chances.

I know that Steven Gerrard is out, but Torres will probably play and we've seen how the Spanish striker can turn a game on it's head with a goal.

Yes Liverpool have injuries, but so do Lyon, and I think that the pendulum and the odds has swung too far in favour of the home side now.

Liverpool need at least a point from this game, preferably three, but a defeat is not acceptable, while Lyon's task for progression is much easier, and the home side will be satisfied with a point.

This game has the sniff of a draw about it.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Lyon 1-1 Liverpool

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Olympique Lyon 30% - Draw 40% - Liverpool 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

This game has good chances for a DRAW

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take LIVERPOOL with a +1/2 goal handicap start