Quarter Two

In the second quarter we have Djokovic, Gasquet, Robredo, Tsonga, Haas, Almangro and Soderling as the likely contenders to win this quarter.

Starting with the first quarter of the quarter, we have Djokovic who has been handed a glorious draw. He should make little work of Gimeno in the first round and then Chuidinello who is apparently a good friend of Roger Federer but unless he plays like him it’s going to be a walk over for the Serb. Just below him in the draw we have the once upon a time “next big thing” in Chardy but he has gone off the radar lately and I fancy the German Berrer to cause an upset in round two against him. Regardless, Djokovic is too good for both these contenders and will cruise into the last 16.

In the last 16 his opponent will be most likely out of Gasquet or Robredo. Gasquet has been on fire lately after having his name cleared regarding his drugs ban. The Frenchman now ranked 53 nearly beat Roddick in Brisbane 2 weeks ago and then last week lost in the final in Sydney to an inspired Baghdatis. Gasquet has been striking the ball well and is capable of causing an upset, my only fear is he may burn out the longer the tournament goes.

The draw has also been unkind to Gasquet, he faces the unpredictable Youzhny in the 1st round which on paper looks like a Gasquet win as Youzhny so far has played once this year and lost to Stakhovsky in the first round in Doha. However, before the seasons end he lost in the final of Valencia defeating Davydenko, Tsonga and Simon on the way which is impressive. Youzhny has a 2-1 record over him but I see the Frenchman as a slight favourite and I expect him to go on and then face Ginepri who like Youzhny is unpredictable but Ginepri just lost to Lacko in Chennai the world number 82 whilst Gasquet has just beat 8 odd players in 2 weeks.

Waiting for Gasquet in the last 32 will be Robredo who impressively beat Murray in the Hopman cup, the Spaniard has beaten Gasquet both times on their hard court encounters so we must make him slight favourite.

Whoever wins, will face Djokovic in the last 16, however for both their tournament comes to an end here, Djokovic has 5 wins in 6 v Robredo winning all the hard court encounters. Against Gasquet, Djokovic has 3 wins in 4, with Gasquets only win on Carpet which is much slower than the Aussie courts. The Serbian has too much in the locker for these two challengers and will be one of the quarter finalists for sure.

The half of this quarter is potentially there for the taking for Jo-Wilfred Tsonga the losing finalist here in 2008. The Frenchman starts off against Stakhovsky and then most likely Dent who had a bright future ahead of him but has been plagued by injuries and whilst he could cause an upset we must presume Tsonga will beat him, considering he’s an ex-finalist here and recently got to the final of the Kooyong Exchange.

In the round of 32, Tsonga will face the winner of Haas and Tipsarevic again two more guys who on any day can cause an upset. The two of them are 1-1 in head to head but haven’t played each other for a few years and never on a hard court. With Haas being a top 20 player in the world we have to back him out the two, although he did lose all his Kooyong games last week whilst Tipsarevic made the semis in Chennai before he lost to Cilic. This game could go to 5 sets which plays nicely into Tsonga’s hands, even more so as he just beat Haas last week in the Kooyong exchange. Whilst against Tipsarevic the two have never met, but when you consider Tipsarevic has lost the 6 of the last 7 against top 10 players in the world, we back Tsonga to make the last 16.

The bottom quarter really is there for the taking, straight away Soderling sticks out as a threat following his break out year last season however the Swede is really struggling with injury at the moment and has lost to Ginepri in Chennai, Tsonga in the Kooyong Exchange and then at a set down pulled out against Ljubicic. I’m looking to fade Soderling big time in this tournament. Having said that, I still think he will beat Granollers and face Falla who can be tricky, if the Swede comes through the first round easily enough without his injury flaring up he is a big favourite to beat Falla.

In the last 32 we could realistically fade Soderling against other seed Almangro you may ask? Well no, I think Almagro is going home in round one. The Spaniard is not a hard courter and only keeps his ranking due to his clay form, he has played one game this year on hard and lost to world 58 Marc Gicquel 6-0,6-3! He faces the X-man, Xavier Malisse who has already had to beat 3 odd guys to qualify and is a threat, he likes the hard courts and is a nice dog play in the first round.

Benjamin Becker should face Malisse up next and this is going to be a close one, they have never met but Becker is the favourite. He won 4 matches in Doha before losing to Karlovic but he did break him and take a set, then last week he lost to Gasquet in Sydney but Gasquet made the final. Becker’s flat hard hitting is likely to see him face Sodering in the last 32.

Soderling – Becker could be the first major shock of the tournament, yes Soderling is 2-0 v the German but as mentioned before we have a guy here on hot form against a guy whose cold whilst struggling with an injury that has seen him lose every game this year! Plus Soderling has had two more games with the injury to get here it’s hardly going to help him, whilst Becker after his two earlier games is likely to be in a nice rhythm and his confidence will be booming for this one. I like Becker if he gets to his game to push Soderling close.

In the last 16, Tsonga will play Becker or Soderling, either way I see the Frenchman winning and setting up a rematch of the 2008 final against Djokovic for a place in the last 4. Soderling does have a 2-1 record over Tsonga but Tsonga beat him last week and by the time they meet this year in the Open it should be easier for the Frechman, whilst Becker I don’t think has it in him to beat Soderling and Tsonga back to back over 5 sets. Tsonga is my pick to reach the last 8.

Quarter 2- Quarter Final

Likely to be Tsonga – Djokovic, the Final of 2008 looks a mouth watering encounter. Tsonga leads the h2h 4-2 but this is deceiving, the Aussie Open final was their first encounter with Djokovic winning in 4 sets, the other win by the Serb was in March last year in Miami a straight sets win.

Why have I mentioned the two wins to Djokovic? Well both courts are fast hard outdoor courts which suites Djokovic more than Tsonga, Tsonga’s four wins all have come on Indoor Hard and two in France where he’ll have a big partisan crowd behind him.

The only fear is Djokovic has been very poor at the Kooyong Exchange this last week, only beating Haas then losing to Verdasco 6-1, 6-2 and to Tomic in 3 sets which is alarming. However, he loves the Aussie Open it’s the only Slam to his name and already knows he can beat Tsonga here, plus he has 7 wins in the last 10 to top 10 players, add in that it’s his favourite surface. Djokovic is going to the semis.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Most likely to win this quarter : Djokovic 2.20
Next best Tsonga 6.50