Hull City v Arsenal
Football : England, Premier League 2009/2010
Saturday 13th March 2010 - Kickoff 5:30pm

---

Hull City

Last 5 Hull City games at Home : W1-D3-L1 F6-A7

Following a demolition at Everton last week (losing 5-1), Phil Brown’s Hull are in real trouble in their quest to stay in England’s top flight. Hull sit second from bottom and have 1 win in 14 games and now welcome the Champions League Quarter Finalists Arsenal to the KC Stadium in Saturday’s evening kick off.

Despite languishing in 19th place and losing the last 3 games (all away), Hull surprisingly have been decent at home of late. Now I don’t mean top 4 good but in the last 5 games they have only lost once in a set of games against Man City (Won 2-1), Chelsea (drew 1-1), Wolves (drew 1-1), Blackburn (drew 0-0) & Man United (lost 1-3).

I wanted to mention this miniseries of games because most teams would have lost to Man United, Chelsea and Man City but Hull has taken 4 points from 9 so when they face Arsenal I don’t think they will be afraid of them, I think Phil Brown will use these great results (Chelsea, Man City) to fully motivate his side and points are not out of the question.

For teams like Hull it’s about finding the positives and looking to build on what you have, and at the moment despite losing 3 on the trot all away from home as mentioned above, they are unbeaten in 3 at home. In two of the 3 games, Hull has managed to score more than 1 goal twice, scoring 2 against City and Wolves, now this is important because realistically I don’t think 1 goal is enough to take a point against Arsenal.

In 13 home games this season, Hull have scored 18 goals which is just shy of 1.50 goals a game, but more importantly 6 of these games have had 2 goals or more in them from the Tigers. The record when scoring two or more? 6 homes games with 4 wins and 2 draws, if Hull can get 2 goals on Saturday they look great for points.

Conversely, Hull's record when scoring less than 2 goals (21 times in 28 games!!) 1 win, 6 draws and 14 defeats in games both home and away, so it just adds more weight to Hull needed to score twice to salvage anything from this game.

Team news is that following last week’s drubbing by Everton, Hunt and Dawson picked up knocks and are doubts although currently both are set to start. Dean Marney is back into consideration given his run out in the reserves on Monday. Whilst Craig Fagan returns from suspension and is battling the impressive Cairney for a place in the midfield now that key playmaker Bullard is back in the squad following his long term absence.

Predicted Hull City Lineup :
Myhill, McShane, Zayatte, Mouyokolo, Dawson; Boateng, Cairney, Bullard, Hunt; Fagan, Zaki.

Arsenal

Last 5 Arsenal games away : W3-D1-L1 F9-A4

Arsene Wenger’s men visit the KC Stadium in third place despite winning last time out against Burnley, at the moment his side are doing all that they can do in their quest for the title and the Gunners will be seeking all three points again in the late kickoff on Saturday.

Wenger will bring with him the in-form away side in the country, 10 points from 15 can be bettered by no one and overall his side are the second best when playing on the road. Arsenal have amassed an impressive 24 points from their 14 away games, only leaders United with 26 have more, this Arsenal side will visit any ground in the country looking for 3 points and in the 14 away games, 7 times have the North Londoners prevailed.

Already knowing that Arsenal wins around 50% of their away games and that Hull has only lost around 25% of their home games suggests it should be a tight encounter to force an away win. Yet what I think makes Arsenal backable is their firepower, in road games alone Arsenal have scored 28 goals which is 2 a game and that obviously includes away games at Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United, I think this average will only go up come the end of the season.

It’s hard to see Hull being able to keep Arsenal at bay for long spells in this game, in the Gunners last 4 games they have scored a sensational 9 goals conceding just the 2.

Normally a side misses their captain, but Arsenal humiliated Portugal’s finest mid week 5-0 without Cesc Fabregas and even Bendtner scored 3 goals that night. Arsenal are simply flying and it’s impossible to oppose them at the moment when they simply look unstoppable.

Team news is that as mentioned above Fabregas is out with a hamstring niggle as are Djourou, Gibbs, Gallas, Ramsey and Van Persie. A few doubts remain over Campbell, Rosicky, Sagna and Vela, of the doubtful players I think only Sagna will start with Silvestre also getting a start.

Predicted Arsenal Lineup : Almunia, Sagna, Silvestre, Vermaelen, Clichy; Diaby, Denilson, Nasri; Eboue, Arshavin, Bendtner.

The Betting Verdict :

Arsenal should have too much class and imagination for this Hull side that despite holding Chelsea and beating Man City recently looked toothless last weekend and should be put to the sword by Wenger’s men.

The Pick :

Hull 0-2 Arsenal

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Hull 12% - Draw 22% - Arsenal 66%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Arsenal to win at 1.44 at Canbet

HANDICAP BETTING :

For a bigger price try Arsenal (-1.50 AH) at 2.31 at Canbet