SPANISH LA LIGA BETTING PICK - REAL MADRID V BARCELONA

Spanish La Liga

2010-04-10 - Real Madrid vs Barcelona

A Sports Betting Pick by Shady

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Saturday, 10th April 2010 - Kickoff 9pm GMT

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Match Analysis :

This is probably where the title is won or lost for both clubs. A victory by either club would put them as firm favourites to win the La Liga. Madrid has a slight advantage going into this game as they did not play in midweek and they are hosting the game.

Going into this game, Barcelona have won the last 3 games against Real Madrid. The more remarkable one came at the end of last season when Barcelona hammered Real 6-2 at the Santiago Bernebau. Real Madrid last win against Barcelona was back in May 2008 when Madrid won 4-1.

Pep Guardiola will be without Swedish International Zalatan Ibrahimovic who is out injured while Eric Abidal is also ruled out. Iniesta who has missed the last few games is expected to make his way back into the line up but most probably start from the bench while Pique who was carrying a knocked is expected to feature in this game.

For Madrid, Kaka has not featured in a single game since being knocked out by Lyon in the Champions League, and Madrid have confirmed that Kaka is ruled out because of a thigh problem. Xabi Alonso and Benzema are rated doubtful for the game.

Both teams are expected to use similar formation with a 4-3-2-1 formation. Both teams are the best attacking team in La Liga this season with Real Madrid notching 83 goals and Barcelona 75 goals.

Probable Line Ups :

Real Madrid :
Casillas,
Sergio Ramos, Albiol, Garay, Arbeloa,
Diarra, Alonso/Gaga, Genaro,
Van Der Vaart, Ronaldo
Higuain.

Barcelona :
Victor Valdes,
Dani Alves, Carlos Puyol, Pique/Milito, Maxwell,
Busquets, Xavi, Keita,
Pedro, Messi
Henry/ Bojan

Asian Handicap Analysis :

Under the asian handicap line, Real Madrid have recorded a 60% winning rate at Santiago Bernabeu this season.

Madrid have paid punter 9 times, drawn 1 and lost 5 along the way. The 5 losses came against, Atletico Madrid, Gijon, Sevilla, Racing Santander and Deportivo La Coruna.

Even with Real Madrid in great form recently, 3 of the 5 losses came in their last 3 home games when Real Madrid failed to cover the massive head start given.

Barcelona on the other hand have a 53% winning rate on the road this season under the asian handicap line.

Barcelona recorded 8 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw from the 15 away games this season. The 6 losses came against Almeria, Atletico Madrid, Sporting Gijon, Bilbao, Osasuna and Valencia.

THe Betting Verdict :

Barcelona in recent weeks has emerged from a team that relies on team work to a team that relies on an individual, Lional Messi. The entire Barcelona team still works hard to secure them wins but it is Messi who is doing everything for them at the moment. The hat-trick against Arsenal in midweek was his 4th hat-trick of this calendar year.

With Ibrahimovic out injured Barcelona will even have to further rely on Messi to get them the goals. IF Pellegrini can work something out that can keep the little Argentine out quite, i am expecting to Madrid to hammer Barcelona.

However, if we put the Messi factor aside, Pellegrini’s man have notched up 15 straight wins at home this season, which is an astonishing record. Madrid are simply strong at home and with Ronaldo stepping out at the media claim that he is “better” than Messi, i expect a good show from the Portuguese International.

With Real Madrid already knocked of the Champions League and the King’s Cup after spending no less than 250 million Euros, Pellegrini’s side will be pressured to put on a performance and win this crucial “el-clasico” and i am backing the home side to win the game.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Small Side Bet : Both teams to score