David Ferrer v Rafael Nadal
Tennis: ATP Masters Monte Carlo Semi Final
Saturday 17th April 2010 - Start 12:30pm GMT

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Preview

This should be a good Semi Final to warm up fans before the Verdasco-Djokovic match that follows and it will be interesting to see if David Ferrer really believes he can beat Rafael Nadal on a clay court. Nadal has now gone 11 months since last picking up his title, but he has won this event in each of the last 5 seasons and is the favourite to do so again.

David Ferrer played solid tennis for the most part in his Quarter Final win over Philipp Kohlschreiber but must find a way to look after his own serve in a more convincing fashion in this match. He has had an excellent campaign on clay courts already this season and will be looking to get into peak condition for the French Open.

Rafael Nadal dropped just 2 games in his first 2 matches back on his favourite surface as he looks to finally end his own personal trophy drought and begin moving back up to the World Number 1 position he held at this time last season. Nadal was more than impressive with his disposal of Juan Carlos Ferrero in the last round and he only dropped his serve once in the match.

Over the course of the week, neither player has dropped a set in their victories.

These 2 have a long history of playing each other and they are good friends off the court. Rafael has won 9 of his 12 meetings with David Ferrer. Ferrer last won a match against his fellow Spaniard in 2007, the year when he famously beat Nadal in the US Open 4th Round in a truly inspirational performance.

6 of the 7 meetings on clay courts have been won by Rafael Nadal (the only victory for Ferrer coming back in 2004 in their first ever meeting) and he has only dropped 2 sets in the last 6 on clay courts.

Prediction

These 2 players are evenly matched in a lot of departments, with David Ferrer being one of the few players that can compete with Nadal for fitness and speed. However, Rafa always has the extra consistency and power in his game to pull through on the slower clay courts.

The effective shot we are bound to see is the high, loopy ball to the backhand by Nadal which gives Ferrer a problem in effectively returning.

In past matches on the clay courts, David Ferrer has managed to keep a set close before losing a run of games and falling away. However, he seems to relish his battles with his countryman and we can be sure that he will give his all throughout.

An important factor to consider is that Rafael Nadal generally begins matches by receiving serve and this is particularly important when looking at the handicap set out. While Nadal has covered this handicap in each of the last 5 matches on clay against Ferrer, I feel this match is going to be closer and will pick Ferrer to cover.

The Pick :

Rafael Nadal in 2 sets

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

David Ferrer + 5.5 Games at 2.10 (Paddy Power)