AFL Aussie Rules
2010-07-30 - St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Venue : Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
Friday, 30th July 2010 - Start 19:40 AEST
The Saints face the Bombers in the Friday night clash at the troubled Etihad Stadium.
The big issue in footy this week has been the condition of the ground’s playing surface. Players are constantly slipping and the pressure is being put on the Stadium owners to get it up to scratch.
The Saints are not losing this match because a win is imperative to keep pushing for a top two berth and a favourable draw for finals footy.
St. Kilda Saints (3rd, 12-4-1)
The defence of the Saints is second to none and there is no reason to think they won’t curb the Bombers this week. Coming off an 87-87 draw with Hawthorn last week the Saints need a win to get back on top of things and it is hard to see them coming away with anything but a comprehensive win this week.
The Saints defence is so frugal and always finds ways to hold opponents to mini scores. Jason Blake and Sam Fisher will play on the main targets and can be expected to once again hold their men well and you have to ask where the Bombers might score from.
Considering how well the Saints use the ball through the middle, and close space through pressure. Jason Gram and James Gwilt will be helpful in terms of getting the ball going forward for the Saints.
The middle sees an area where the Saints are littered with talent. Leigh Montagna could be playing well enough to win a Brownlow Medal this year and his ability to find the ball and use it well puts him right up in the upper echelon of AFL midfielders. He is assisted by the likes of Lenny Hayes, Brendon Goddard and Farren Ray and between these guys there is no shortage of serious quality through the centre.
Up forward the Saints have the ever dangerous Stephen Milne. Milne is a pest on the field and manages to not only win his position but he frustrates his direct opponents to the point where they can become reckless and give away unnecessary free-kicks. The two big blokes in Nick Riewoldt and Justin Kosi only need to play at half their ability for an easy win in this match as they will get plenty of support from people like Adam Schneider and Andrew McQualter.
Essendon Bombers (12th, 6-11)
The Bombers snared a much needed win last week over the Kangaroos and now face the Saints. Essendon will struggle in this one with important midfielder Jason Winderlich out and doubts over Captain Jobe Watson. Even if Watson is right to play I think it will be very difficult for the Dons.
Down back Essendon is likely to find the going very tough. They have mismatches everywhere and I expect Michael Hurley, Kyle Hardingham and Heath Hocking to battle for 120 minutes to no avail. The bottom line is that they conceded 119 points against the Roos last week and now come up against a serious side in the Saints who can and will defend.
The middle is usually led by Jobe Watson but he is racing the clock to be fit following an injury obtained on the weekend. If he plays it will give the young Bombers some leadership through the centre but that is where it ends. Watson is not a damaging player and never really changes the course of a game. Brent Stanton, Kyle Reimers and Brent Prismall will be the guys who will really need to figure if the Bombers are to be competitive.
In attack Essendon is lead by Jay Neagle and Alwyn Davey. These two can offer a spark up forward and if this spark can occur we could see s shoot out for a while before the Saints pull away. Without assistance from Bachar Houli and Scott Gumbleton in the forward 50 there is absolutely no chance the Bombers can win.
The Betting Tip
The Saints are a lock here despite losing the corresponding clash earlier in the year.
The Pick :
Saints to win by 25 or more
