MINNESOTA TWINS @ TAMPA BAY RAYS
Baseball : United States : MLB Regular Season
Thursday, August 5th 2010 - Start 12:10PM ET
(5:10PM GMT)

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MINNESOTA TWINS
(60-48 W/L, 27-28 Road, Streak W1)

Kevin Slowey is coming into this game after a successful last start, where he threw 8 innings giving up 5 hits and 0 runs. He struck out 5 and did not walk anybody. I smell a letdown here.

Slowey is giving up 1.20 HomeRuns per 9 innings, and that looks set to rise here in the early game. He has been successful as a pitcher, but looking at stats I found that 70% of the balls pitched by him that do get hit, end up as fly balls or line drives, which are very good if you're hoping for a game with runs.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
(67-40 W/L, 34-22 Home, Streak L1)

Wade Davis is the starter for the Rays, and he has struggled to be consistent. Davis has surrendered 1.50 Home Runs per 9 innings pitched, which is not a good number.

The right-hander also does not manage to get enough strikes, just 5.79 per 9, and allows 3.5 walks per game. Taking all this into consideration, Davis has been lucky to own a 4.21 ERA this season.

Davis is in his first proper MLB season and despite Minny having some key offensive names on the bench or the DL, the newbie will probably have a rough time.

He's had a good July, going 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA, but I put that down to him getting incredibly lucky in stranding 80% of the batters he allowed to get on bases. Indeed, in June, he went 0-5 and had a 6.00 ERA!

If he starts letting men on base here, the odds will favour runs being scored and he's likely to end up leaving the game early.

BETTING VERDICT

Justin Morneau and Orlando Hudson are both out for the Twins. Carlos Pena is still expected to end up out, to rest his foot, so that's a problem for the Rays. The line has dropped a bit because of this and so this brings a bit of value, if that's your thing.

Lots of runs to make up for yesterdays low-scorer. Take the OVER.

The Pick :

OVER 8.5 runs!

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take the Over 8.5 runs @ 2.10 (Pinnacle) - MAIN BET