Barcelona v Hercules
Football : Spain : La Liga
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Saturday 11th September 2010, 18.00 Local

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Barcelona

Barcelona kicked off their season two weeks ago as if they’d never been away, brushing Racing Santander aside with their usual jaw dropping majesty. There appeared to be no signs of fatigue coming off the back of a World Cup summer for the plethora of internationals in the Barcelona ranks.

However, the midweek Spanish friendly in Argentina saw a large Barcelona contingent travelling and this may leave a few feeling a little leggy. This is probably the biggest risk for Barca backers on Saturday night.

The Catalan giants face newly promoted Hercules priced up at an incredible 1.08 to take victory. Bearing in mind Barcelona's home form over the last 12 months, it is a price that I am tempted to say might actually be fair. It's how we inflate the odds to get to a working mans price that is the problem.

Over 2.5 goals is priced up at 1.3, which again is actually probably a fair price on a statistical basis, but you cant go around backing 1.3 pokes on a dodgy market like over/unders.

First and anytime goalscorers also hold limited appeal at very short prices, while the handicap line is set at a massive -3 goals for the home side. The bookies are running scared of this relentless Barca side who just keep winning by a margin. A little creative punting is required.

Hercules

Promoted to La Liga for the first time in 13 years, albeit controversially, the Herculanos are making the most of this most recent foray into the top flight. Whilst they did look ill-equipped to deal with the top level at the start of the year, they have gone for it and made exciting signings.

These include Juventus favourite David Trezeguet and Real Madrid Dutchman talent Royston Drenthe…two attacking players of high quality. The way Barcelona spread their defensive line across the wide Nou Camp pitch means there are gaps for the opposition to exploit, and so the champions do give you a chance to score on them. A Hercules goal is unlikely, but not impossible.

Last weeks opening day home defeat to traditional bad travellers Bilbao may have been a bit of an anticlimactic result having waited so long since their last la liga appearance, but Bilbao are a decent side and there was no shame in the scoreline.

Head to head

The sides last met in 1997, when incredibly Hercules did the double over Barcelona.

The Betting Verdict

Barcelona will win, but with some tired travellers and ultra short prices the normal markets hold little appeal. The bookies expect Barca to win by 3 goals, and so do I, so I will try dutching some correct scores to try and get a reasonable price.

2-1 correct score 16% of total stake @ 17
3-0 correct Score 35% of total stake @ 7.5
4-0 correct Score 31% of total stake @ 8.5
4-1 correct score 18% of total stake @ 15

Dutching the above gives total odds of 2.65 and on last seasons results there is a 52% chance of one of these score lines occurring. Less likely to be a winner, but better than getting involved with huge stakes at very short odds-on prices.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Barcelona 3 Hercules 0

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Barcelona 90% - Draw 5% - Hercules 5%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Try a combination of correct scores :
Barcelona to win 2-1, 3-0, 4-0 or 4-1 at 2.65 (dutched correct scores)