Dutch EreDivision
2010-09-19 - NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football : Netherlands : Eredivisie
Saturday, 19th September 2010 - Kickoff 14:30
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen are exactly on the middle of the table on a ninth place with 7 points collected so far, and 4 of this total at home.
NEC are playing some nice football to watch so far, and with some good signings they are doing just fine. Last week a shock was looming, as they led 1-0 at PSV at halftime. But PSV accelerated and NEC lost 3-1 in the end.
But in that first half, NEC were playing very well, and maybe even better than PSV. This is worth a compliment, and it makes me expect something of them in their next match and maybe the whole season. At home NEC have had visits of Heerenveen (2-2) and VVV (1-0) so far, and strangely only made 3 of a total 11 goals at home.
NEC's new signing Leroy George, who was impressing as a winger is out for this match after getting injured last week. His replacement Goossens scored the opener against PSV with a stunning free kick, and is not much less than George. This seems to be the only notable absentee, and NEC will be fresh for this match.
This means striker Vlemincx will be eager to continue his good form with four goals scored already, flanked by winger Chatelle on loan of Anderlecht and Goossens. This seems to be a good offensive line, and supported by their best player Schone which I mentioned in a earlier preview, they might not be an underdog as odds suggest
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar played on Thursday against Sheriff Tiraspol in the Europa League, and won 2-1. It was a deserved win, but they needed to work hard for it and they winning goal fell late in the second half.
AZ has stared badly in the domestic league, with only three points and no win so far. Morale has been going down and is pretty low at the moment.
The lack of a striker is a huge problem, as midfielder Falkenburg has a hard time playing at a position where he doesn't belong. Manager Verbeek is not giving up for sure, but even he must be pulling his hairs out at times for the missed chances and lack of finishing so far.
Now AZ is considered as favourites here, and that's something I don’t understand. They are winless so far, and have played average so far. It is waiting on someone to fill in the position of striker with goals, and on the defensive end they are vulnerable.
Goalkeeper Romero who wanted to leave the club didn´t find a new club, and he will be given the chance to prove himself in a while. This must be hard for goalie Didulica, who has often been second choice and hoped to finally play a whole season as number one.
Also they had a match on thursday and legs will not be as fresh as usual, and adding this up I make them the underdogs in thsi match
The Betting Verdict
NEC are a fine mid-table team so far, and AZ are capable of more than that but are underachieving.
Nothing works for AZ and they are slumping through their matches. Morale and confidence is just getting smaller after five winless matches, and I doubt a win against Sheriff will change a lot to the situation.
I wouldn't rate AZ Alkmaar favourites in this match under current circumstances, and I'm very tempted to take NEC Nijmegen to win.
But because of the fact a draw is pretty likely too in my eyes, I'll back them with the half ball handicap.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take NEC Nijmegen +0.5 AH at 1.78 Canbet
