SPANISH LA LIGA BETTING PICK - ESPANYOL V BARCELONA

Spanish La Liga

2010-12-18 - Espanyol vs Barcelona

A Sports Betting Pick by Caged

The tricky fixtures keep on coming for this rampant Barcelona side, who face local rivals Espanyol at their Cornella Fortress. Can Barcelona see off their neighbours in the derby of Barcelona

Espanyol

4th Place

Home Record W7 D0 L0 GF12 GA2

No doubt about it, moving to the small, tight, atmospheric Cornella from the hated, soulless concrete expanse of the Montjuic has benefited Espanyol enormously. Ticket sales are up, and so is form.

With one of the smaller budgets in the Primera, Coach Pochettino has quietly manoeuvred his Blue Budgies into 4th place on the back of seven straight home wins. The second best home record in the division. Better than Barcelonas.

OK, theyve had a relatively kind run of fixtures at home where they are yet to face anyone of any note. And in the main they have come unstuck against the big hitters in the division, having lost by four at Villareal, three at the Bernebeu and would have been disappointed going down at Bilbao last weekend. So, even though these are all away from home where Espanyol are traditionally poor, there isn’t much scope for a bet on the hosts to win.

But they have beaten Atletico, in the Calderon, three games ago. So there is the potential there for a big performance and result against the elite.

And they also have a good record at home to Barcelona. Theyve drawn the last two on their own patch against their local rivals, in fact this fixture throws up a lot of draws.

That makes the big prices about the draw look tempting, particularly a low scoring draw because Espanyol showed last year that they can play a high intensity pressing game that suffocates Barca, as Inter did in the Champions League.

When Espanyol do get beat by Barcelona, they dont get beat by much. The last time they lost by more than 1 goal to Barcelona at home was in 2003, and its only happened twice in all competitions since 2000.

Barcelona

1st Place

Away Record W6 D0 L0 GF21 GA3

Well what can you say about Barca? Pundits and observers are quite rightly running out of superlatives that do this side justice. Their current form has many people calling them the best team of our generation and they are probably the best team I have ever seen.

That commendation doesn't come cheap. I've seen some good teams live, the German national side of the early nineties, the Dutch side that included Bergkamp, Rijkaard and Gullit, the French world cup winning side of the late nineties, as well as Barca with Ronaldinho in his pomp, Juventus in their prime nearly a decade ago, that Gascoigne Tottenham side and the all conquering Arsenal side around the same time. Man United with Scholes, Giggs, Schmeical et al in their prime. Oxford Uniteds Conference playoff winning side of last year.

Err, anyway. My point is that this side can and probably will beat anyone in the world today, and in style at that. Their poor neighbours have it all to do come Saturday evening. But the hosts do have momentum at home, and more crucially they showed last year that they are one of the few sides who can get under this Barcelona sides skins and do have the formula to frustrate them.

The Betting Verdict :

Barca will almost certainly win this, but 1/3 odds on is no price for an away side who have drawn their last two visits to their local rivals.

I don't expect Barcelnoa to win by much, and so dutching Barca to win by 1 or 2 goals at even money is a real player and I wouldnt put anyone off that bet. This bet would have been a winner in 6 of the last 12 meetings and so even money looks to be a fair price.

But there does look to be more value in taking Espanyol +1.5 goals. Barcelona are more than capable of making this bet look stupid, but this bet would have been a winner in 10 of the last 12 meetings and is priced up at 2.27.

That's Valuetastic!

The Statistics :

The Pick :