ARSENAL v CHELSEA
Football : England : Premier League
Monday 27th December 2010 - Kickoff 8:00pm

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Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium in the feature match on Monday evening - and it's a match that will tell us an awful lot about the title hopes of both clubs.

Arsenal (2nd - 32 points)

Arsenal have put together a frustrating mix of quality so far this season, with some good, mediocre and awful efforts - even here at the Emirates Stadium.

Truth to be told, this Arsenal squad looks to be one of the technically weakest that Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has presided over at his time with the club, but it is also a lot more physically competitive as Wenger seems to have finally got the message.

This is a team constructed to compete in the English Premier League, to be able to compete, and give as good as they get, and this season has seen Arsenal pick up quite a few yellow and red cards.

Arsenal's recent home league performances have been scrappy, niggly, nail-biting affairs, with 3 wins (Fulham, West Ham, Brimingham City) and 3 losses (West Brom, Newcastle, Spurs), and ALL of them have been decided by a single goal margin.

But while this Arsenal side look less dominant, they are probably also looking likely to pick up some sort of domestic trophy this season too - even if it might not be the league title

Wenger has done exactly what I've been complaining about - he's constructed this Arsenal squad to try and battle to win - so I guess that I'd better shut up and accept that I've got what I asked for.

Arsenal Team News :
Wenger has said that "We have everybody back : Abou Diaby, captain Cesc Fabregas, Robin Van Persie - and keeper Lukasz Fabianski too."

These are four very important playes for Arsenal - pretty much the central spine of the side - and that is a positive for home fans.

Chelsea (4th - 31 points)

Chelsea's recent run has underlined the importance of having a big squad, something that has usually been associated with the Stamford Bridge outfit, but that has been missing this season as players are sold to attempt to balance the books.

It seems that Roman Abrimivich's financial commitment to Chelsea is waning, perhaps due to UEFA's edict on clubs needing a balanced book, perhaps due to Russia's World Cup bid. But whatever the reason, for the first time in about six seasons Chelsea's squad looks to be as threadbare as the rest of the league.

It is little surprise then that Chelsea have struggled to compete recently, and the Blues Blues have gone five league games without a win as John Terry, Frank Lampard and Michael Essien have each had spells out injured.

On the road, Chelsea have won just once in their last six, a 2-1 success at Blackburn, while losing at both Liverpool and Birminham City, and drawing at Villa, Newcastle and Tottenham.

Chelsea Team News :
Centre-back John Terry and midfielders Frank Lampard and Michael Essien are expected to play although whether they are completely match-fit is debateable.

Statistically Speaking :

There is no doubt that Chelsea hold a significant edge over Arsenal in recent league clashes, with a 3-2-1 record at the Emirates, and a 4-1-1 record at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have won the last four league clashes between the two clubs in the last 18 months, including 4-1 and 3-0 wins at the Emirates.

But my spreadsheet has both of these clubs in a significant downturn in recent form - co-inciding with absences of key players.

The Betting Verdict :

If you're a fan of either side then you'll probably be backing your team to win no matter what I say here - and given prices of 2.65 for Arsenal to win and 2.90 for Chelsea to emerge victorious I won't put you off.

Arsenal have had just 2 draws this season - and neither of them at the Emirates. The Gunners style of play under Wenger this season does seem to be a score / concede / score that encourages goals and results instead of playing for a 0-0 draw.

A draw suits neither side here.

Chelsea have had the edge in recent seasons, but look to be wobbling, and Arsenal appear to have their strongest line-up of the season available. As I say both sets of fans have their reasons for confidence.

One other angle that might pay dividends is a look at the anytime scorer market. Chelsea fans should definately be on Didier Drogba to score anytime at a standout 3.00 at Eurobet - he has 13 goals in 13 games against Arsenal.

Arsenal fans should probably be on Samir Nasri to score anytime at a tasty 3.60 - also at Eurobet he's scored 12 goals already this season.

Finally, just a word from my spreadsheet again. The closest match I can find in previous games between these two sides, is a match on Boxing day 2001. Chelsea were slight ratings favourites at 1050-1043, very comparable to 1059-1053 in this game.

Arsenal won that festive match 2-1 at Highbury ... and I'll go for a repeat score at the Emirates.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Arsenal 45% - Draw 25% - Chelsea 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

It depends on who you support I guess - I'll take :
- Arsenal to win @ 2.65 at PinnacleSports
and Samir Nasri to score anytime at 3.60 (Eurobet)

While Chelsea fans will have other favoured bets as outlined above. ;-)