Spanish La Liga
2011-02-05 - Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : Spain : Primera
Saturday 5th February 2011
Off to the Camp Nou for the sublime skills of the best team in the world.
This weeks lambs to the slaughter are Atletico Madrid. Atleti are considered to be a side Barca traditionally struggle against, in fact I was in the Stadium four years ago when Fernando Torres fired Atletico to victory in front of a shocked Camp Nou.
We therefore have to overlook Atleticos decent record in this fixture in order to justify the criminally short prices on offer for the home side.
But one look at the form table tells us why you wont get better than 1.16 about the hosts. 15 league wins in a row, averaging nearly 3 goals a game.
And then we look at Atleti. Poor Atleti. Quique Sanchez Flores position remains hanging by a thread as the Madrid side have managed just one win in 6, going down to defeats against such top class luminaries as Hercules and Sporting.
What case can we make for the visitors? Well they have a decent record against Barca (although that is of course relative), and some good players.
But lets not beat around the bush, Atleti may be a huge price considering the quality in their side but there is a reason for that, they are wretched form and that is no position to be in when travelling to the Camp Nou.
The perennial problem of course is how we get a decent price about a Barcelona win. The handicap line is set at -2.5, which is ridiculous even for a team of Barcas effortless superiority.
History tells us goals should be on the menu too but the goals markets are sewn up once again, with an astonishing 1.33 on offer for over 2.5 goals.
So once again we move our attention to the goalscorer markets. We had a nice little run going on Messi to score first at 3/1, but the prices and frequency of that bet have both contracted and it is no longer an attractive option.
Messi is 1/2 on to score anytime, as is David Villa. One and probably both will come in, but neither are a price for the working man.
So again we come to Pedro. Six goals in his last six league games have put him ahead of Villa in the scoring charts but still no one talks about him, no one really rates him, yand he continues to be offered at much bigger prices to score.
Strikers are a streaky bunch who like playing at home. In this sort of form, nearly even money for Pedro looks value. With Atletico likely to be concentrating on not being humiliated by Messi and Villa, expect them to take their chances with Pedro.
This will give him every chance to extend his impressive scoring streak at a tasty price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Barcelona 3 Atletico 1
