ATHLETIC BILBAO v VALENCIA
Football : Spain : Primera
Sunday 27th February 2011

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You can hear the collective puckering of cheeks as punters around the world look at this fixture and wince at the utter unpredictability of it.

Athletic, so good at home, but have lost their last two matches here, having won four games in a row before that.

Valencia, in good form winning 7 of the last 9, but not the side of recent years and more than capable of knackering punters with a goalless home draw against the likes of Sporting Gijon.

The head to heads of 7 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins probably give us a clue as to the relative probabilities of the match outcome, but prices of 2.4 for an Athletic side who can lose at home to Deportivo not so long ago, against a side like Valencia doesnt give the risk reward balance I would like to see here.

The visitors look the value call, but opposing Bilbao at home is never prudent, and with this intrinsic uncertainty in mind we should switch our attention to the side markets.

Both these sides score goals. The two sides are the 4th and 5th highest scorers in this division averaging more than 1.5 goals/game each.

Valencia have a significantly better defensive record of course, no surprises there. But they are still conceding at a goal a game and have conceded on their last 4 visits to San Mames.

Both teams have scored in the last three encounters and the game has gone over 2.5 goals each time. There is plenty of reason to expect this trend to continue this weekend.

Andoni Iraola is suspended for Athletic, whilst the uncommonly english style of Gaizka Toquero is expected to return to the forward line. For the visitors, only Mehmet Topal is likely to miss out.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Athletic Bilbao 1 Valencia 1

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Bilbao 35% - Draw 35% - Valencia 30%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Bet on Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 (bet365)