BULGARIA v ENGLAND
Football : International : European Championships Qualifier
Friday 2nd September - Kickoff 19:15pm

Bulgaria

Lothar Mattheus's Bulgaria currently occupy 4th place in this 5 nation group sitting only ahead of world ranked number 117 Wales. With only 3 games left in the group it's must win for the Bulgarian's and even then they can only match England's current points tally.

So overall, it's incredibly unlikely that Bulgaria will qualify for the European Championships next summer but it doesn't mean this team will lay down for England especially at home.

The side has no real stars in the modern game, there used to be Ivanov, Letchkov, Stoichkov and Berbatov with the first 3 players key figures in the famous 94' side that finished 4th in the USA World Cup. A few players play their football in the top leagues across Europe but there is no gem right now in Bulgarian football. The golden boy and at the time Captain Berbatov retired from International football in 2010 and he's left a huge whole in the side.

It's no surprise to see Bulgaria being one of the whipping boys in the group, when Berbatov retired there were rumours that he was destroying the team spirit. This is an interesting comment because since then you can imagine the spirit is pretty low right now, they have lost their leader and their best player and are getting beat by most nations,confidence must be incredibly low in this side. Even more so given the nation can't realistically qualify for the finals,all of this of course plays into England's hands.

In the last 6 competitive home games, the Bulgarians do have 3 wins against Georgia (6-2), Montenegro (4-1) and Cyprus (2-0). Bulgaria's problem in the group has been not winning enough games with 1 win in 5 games played so far. Of course I imagine their away record is pretty dire but even the home form shows they just don't win enough to be competitive. In the other 3 games I haven't mentioned they lost to Montenegro (1-0) in a more recent game to one mentioned that they won as well as drawing to Switzerland (0-0) and Ireland (1-1). With England beating this side incredibly comfortably 4-0 at Wembley it's hard to see how Bulgaria will beat them on Friday, even more so when we look at the level of opponents Mattheus's side are beating at the moment.

Team news is that Bulgaria will lineup similar to last time out however attacking midfielder Hristo Yanev is out, as are Apostol Popov (defender) and Chavdar Yankov (midfielder). Valeri Bojinov the once future star for this team is deemed not ready to return to the side by the manager and for me he's a big loss. Whilst the troubled ex-Man City star hasn't always played to his potential he'll cause more problems than current striker Delev. The good news is that both Petrov's who apply their trade in the Premiership will start in a midfield 5 but shouldn't have much joy against their English opponents.

Predicted Bulgaria Lineup:
Mihaylov; Bandalovski, Bodurov, Ivanov, Zanev; S Petrov; Georgiev, Marquinhos, Manolev, M Petrov; Delev.

England

The Three Lions have been slack in recent games, causing their lead at the top to evapourate and Capello's side only lead the group on goal difference. Still whether it's goal difference or 10 points all that matters is that England finishes numero uno and cements it's place in the European Championship Finals next summer.

3 wins and 2 draws from 5 games is the current record of England, which is mirrored by the surprise package of the group Montenegro. Yet the English have been far superior in front of goal scoring 11 and conceding just 3 giving them a plus 8 differential. The Montenegro side is only +3 with a very tight 4 scored and 1 conceded record from their 5 games, whilst many see the equal points being a problem the reality is England are firmly in control of their own destiny.

Last time out England looked very poor in a 2-2 draw at home to Switzerland in a game that the Swiss could have won before falling away to England's power. Darren Bent missed an open goal I recall and had he put away the simple chance this game wouldn't be under so much pressure. Still, I think this suites England under Capello, we saw an emphatic 4-1 win in Croatia in 2008 when the pressure was on and I feel this side will get it done on Friday night.

The last 6 England away games have been very impressive with 5 wins and 1 defeat, with the defeat coming at Ukraine with keeper Green being sent off. Bar any red cards or unexpected events that start should read 6 wins from the last 7 come late Friday night. When looking at the opposition that England has put away lately it's not that great but nor is Bulgaria, wins over Wales (2-0), Switzerland (3-1), Kazakhstan (4-0), Belarus (3-1) and of course the 4-1 win over Croatia mentioned above. These games do span back to 2008 but it's clear to see that England against lower ranked opponents on the road very often get the 3 points.

Team news is that with Bent struggling with a knock we may see Carroll start up top with Rooney on a free role behind. The midfield is without Wlshere and Gerrard but Lampard and Barry are experienced and solid enough. Supporting Carroll i'm going with Young and Milner on the wings and both are very good crossers of the ball so the Liverpool man should get some chances in the air. At the back Richards should start right back, Cole left back and Lescott getting the nod to partner skipper Terry with Ferdinand not yet 100% fit.

Predicted England Lineup:
Hart, Ricahrds, Lescott, Terry, A Cole, Barry, Lampard, Milner, Rooney, Young, Carroll

The Betting Verdict

My knowledge of the Bulgarian side is limited but I do know this England side incredibly well. Whilst they always seem to choke on the big stage in major events, under Capello in qualification they generally are incredibly efficient and the 5 away wins from the last 6 proves that.

With many game winners in Rooney, Young, Carroll, Lampard it's hard not to see England winning. I think once they score they will settle a few nerves and we may see them grab a second or even third. The Bulgarians are no mugs but with their limited arsenal available it's difficult to envisage that they can trouble England.

The first goal may take time to come but this side will fancy their chances defending their goal lead. As a result I'll just take the away win and leave the handicap although at odds against it is tempting. Away Win.

Good Luck.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Bulgaria 0-2 England

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Bulgaria 10% - Draw 25% - England 65%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take England to win at 1.60 Pinnaclesports