MONTENEGRO v ENGLAND
Football : International : European Championships Qualifier
Friday 7th October - Kickoff 20:00pm

Montenegro

Relative International newcomers Montenegro have had a fantastic qualification campaign under Branko Brnović. Despite being one of the minnows in the group with a national population of around 630k, Montenegro has held top spot for most of this qualifying campaign.

Unfortunately for them, the form has left them at the wrong time with no wins since their epic 0-0 draw at Wembley against England back in last October.

Since drawing at Wembley, Montenegro drew with Bulgaria at home 1-1 and then lost 2-1 at the Millienium Stadium as Wales ran out comfortable winners. 1 point from a possible 6 has transformed the group with England now the leaders.

England has 17pts and Montenegro only 11 which is good enough for second but the reality is that unless they win on Friday night against the English. It will be Capello's side that will qualify as group winners and Brnovic's side will miss out.

When looking at the home form during this campaign it's been quite impressive with 2 wins a draw. Wales and Switzerland two sides with much more experience at this level and squad depth surcome to 1-0 defeats, both of which were fully deserved by the home side. Bulgaria as mentioned above did snatch a draw after going behind to the home side so it's hard to really established how strong this side is at home.

The confidence which was there early on in the campaign must be gone, yes it's been a great run and finishing second to England is still an accomplishment. Zlatko Kranjcar was the main man in charge before he was sacked after the Bulgaria draw and Wales defeat which looks incredibly harsh.

But it does show that with qualification in their hands, they blew it when the pressure on. The new coach has nothing to lose in this game and whilst I think they will go out looking for a famous win on Friday it could play right into England's counter-attacking hands.

The key men are Stevan Jovetic who is a class act for Fiorentina, he's started the season well with 2 goals in the first 3 games. Jovetic is likely to start behind the impressive Vucinic who has 2 goals in this campaign as well as starting the season well for Juventus. At the back Man City signing Savic starts at centre back whilst Blackburn's Vukcevic will play an important role in midfield.

Predicted Montenegro Lineup:
Bozovic, Zverotic, Balic, Batak, Savic, Pekovic, Drincic, Vukcevic, Vucinic, Jovetic, Dalovic

England

The 3 Lions have put bounced back following a few poor results to leave them needing just 1 point to win the group. They visit Montenegro in what looks a tricky game against a side that must beat them to stand any chance of winning the group.

England appeared to be cruising along in the group with emphatic wins at home to Bulgaria (4-0) and then away at Switzerland (3-1). However, back to back home draws to Montenegro (0-0) and then to Switzerland (2-2) after going 2-0 down inside 35 minutes left them in second place. Had it not been for Montenegro's own inability to put a strong hold onto the group England would still be in second place and this would be the winner takes all match. Instead England just need a point and after winning 3-0 in Bulgaria and 1-0 at home against Wales the confidence is back and they should be fine this Friday evening.

The away form has been suburb for Capello's side with wins in Switzerland, Wales and Bulgaria 3/3 with an aggregate score of 8-1! Only Shaqiri of Switzerland has been able to breach England's defence when Capello's men have come to town. Whilst I rate some individuals of Montenegro I don't think they will cause England many problems, in fact the more they attack the more I fancy an England counter attack goal.

In the reverse fixture, England were held 0-0 and they will want to put that right this time around. The England players saw their counter parts celebrating like they won the Euro's which has left a bitter taste to some players.

Team news is that with Gerrard and Wilshere out, Parker and Barry will partner recent hattrick hero Lampard in a midfield 3. Up top Rooney will start in the middle supported by Young and Walcott. At the back Terry will resume his partnership with Cahill, Cole at left back and there's a chance Walker will make his debut at right back.

Predicted England Lineup:
Hart, Walker, Cahill, Terry, Cole, Lampard, Parker, Barry, Walcott, Rooney, Young

The Betting Verdict

Whilst an English win isn't needed I think we will see one. The away side is brimming with confidence having won all their previous away games in very dominating fashion.

Montenegro is unbeaten at home this campaign but when you consider how poor Wales and Switzerland were at the start of the campaign I don't think England play as bad. The Bulgarian's with nothing to play came to Montenegro and drew so the worst result I see for England is a score draw.

England has scored at least 2 in every away game this campaign and that includes the spell when they were playing awful! I think this may not be pretty and just when we expect a big win they let us down. But over 90 minutes for me the best team will win this game and that's England.

Having been held at home earlier in the group, revenge will be sweet for Capello's side.

Good Luck.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Montenegro 0-2 England

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Montenegro 15% - Draw 20% - England 65%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take England to win at 1.80 @ Stan James