ITALY V ENGLAND
Rugby : Six Nations
Saturday, 11th February - Kickoff 16:00 (local)
- Stadio Olimpico

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Italy take positives despite France loss
Despite Italy's 30-12 loss to World Cup finalists France, Italy will take plenty of positives from the match – especially from their first half performance. New coach Jacques Brunel has changed the side’s style of play, moving away from a forward dominated style and they enjoyed lots of possession against the French.

However, the lack of a cutting edge ultimately cost Italy the chance of repeating their famous victory of last season.

Italy coach Jacques Brunel said: “We are on the right track but we have to be realistic, we need to make progress. Dominating is not winning. We put the French defence under pressure but the final gesture just got away from us, but the spirit was there and that’s the most important thing."

Brunel continued “I think we enjoyed 75% of territory and 65% of possession in the first half. We also had three or four chances to score a try but we never managed it, as France did.”

New look England off to a promising start
A new look England side got off to a promising start in their 2012 Six Nations campaign after their first win over Scotland at Murrayfield since 2004.

England never hit top gear against a limited Scotland side on Saturday but always looked in control and eventually sealed a 13-6 win.

A total of seven players made their England debut at Murrayfield and Lancaster was pleased with the performance. He told the BBC: “It was a fantastic effort. I’m really chuffed for the boys. It is what teams are built on, spirit, and they showed a tremendous amount of spirit and courage to play for each other and play for England.”

There could be changes for England for their trip to Italy with Toby Flood having been recalled to the England squad after recovering from a knee injury. The 26-year-old fly-half played in Leicester’s LV Cup win over Newcastle and will replace Saracens’ Alex Goode.

Lancaster must decide whether to start with Flood or stick with Charlie Hodgson, who scored a try in the victory over Scotland.

Head to Head

England have won all five matches played in Italy in the last ten years, although it is clear that the ITalian side is slowly closing the gap.

07 Apr 2002 Italy L 09-45 v England in Rome
15 Feb 2004 Italy L 09-50 v England in Rome
11 Feb 2006 Italy L 16-31 v England in Rome
10 Feb 2008 Italy L 19-23 v England in Rome
14 Feb 2010 Italy L 12-17 v England in Rome

The Betting Verdict

Italy have never beaten England and after England’s promising display against Scotland this Saturday’s match looks like a foregone conclusion. However, Italy played well in patches against France and they can make life difficult for England in front of their home crowd.

While England have won all the Six Nations matches in Italy, their last two wins at the Stadio Flaminio have been by just four and five points respectively.

While I expect England to win, I think it is likely to be a close match and so I am on the 10/11 available at Paddy Power on Italy with an eight point start.

The Pick :

England to win but take Italy on handicap

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Italy with an eight point start