Champions League
2025-02-11 - Manchester City vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Play Off Round First Leg
Tuesday 11th February 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester City
Matches against Real Madrid have become very common for Manchester City in the latter Rounds of the Champions League, but Pep Guardiola's men are perhaps fortunate to still be involved in the 2024/25 tournament. Barely scraping through the Group Stage has been punished though with Manchester City facing the defending Champions in the Play Off Round this time around.
It was a really poor Champions League campaign for Pep Guardiola and his squad and they were forty-five minutes from elimination on Match Day 8 of the Group Stage when trailing 0-1 against Club Brugge. The side were able to fight back and secure a 3-1 win and avoid the early exit, but Manchester City were only able to win 3 Group matches and had not won ay of 4 Champions League games before the win over the Belgian Champions.
Manchester City have won 7 of their last 10 games in all competitions, but were pushed all the way by League One Leyton Orient in the FA Cup Fourth Round on Saturday. They have lost 2 of their last 5 fixtures against Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal, but both were away from the Etihad Stadium where Manchester City host the First Leg of this Play Off Round tie. Manchester City are unbeaten in 5 at home in all competitions and have won 4 in a row here.
Erling Haaland was given a full rest on Saturday to get himself ready for this big game. Nico Gonzalez was signed late in the January transfer window, but picked up an injury early on Saturday and is doubtful to say the least. Ederson, Nathan Ake and Jeremy Doku have missed recent games and could miss out again.
Real Madrid
There might have been some thinking being given to avoiding winning on Match Day 8 in the Champions League to ensure Real Madrid were not going to meet the likes of Manchester City or Paris Saint-Germain early in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds. Carlo Ancelotti's team selection ultimately showed that he just wanted to ensure the defending European Champions earned a Seed for the Play Off Round after a slow start in the Group Stage and that is what Real Madrid have achieved.
It does mean a huge Champions League game early in the Knock Out Rounds, but this is a club with a huge history in this competition, both historically and in recent seasons. After losing 3 of 4 Champions League games to effectively end any real hope of finishing in the top eight and earning a direct path into the Last 16, Real Madrid finished very well with 3 straight wins to take them into the top sixteen places in the Group Stage.
Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 7 games in all competitions and used Extra Time to beat Celta Vigo in the Copa Del Rey with all 8 of those matches played since the embarrassing 2-5 Super Cup defeat to Barcelona. The 1-1 home draw with rivals Atletico Madrid has kept Real Madrid on top of the Spanish Primera Division, although you could throw a blanket over the top three teams. The side have won 7 of their last 9 away games in all competitions ahead of this big tie.
Lucas Vasquez is out along with a number of defenders that would have made up the starting backline for Real Madrid.
Head to Head
Real Madrid beat Manchester City on Penalties in the Champions League Quarter Final last season after both Legs ended in draws.
Pep Guardiola's team might have felt hard done by in that Quarter Final, especially after the 1-1 draw at home in the Second Leg snapped a run of 3 consecutive home wins over Real Madrid.
Prediction
Both Manchester City and Real Madrid are going to rely on their attacking players to cover up the defensive problems that have been evident for some time and it would be a massive surprise if there are not plenty of goals scored across the two Legs.
Tensions around the fixture might be the one factor that might pressurise the attacking players to make the right decisions in the final third and perhaps lead to mistakes or bad judgements to be made, but that looks the only way to keep those players from having an impact on this tie.
Manchester City are perhaps healthier at the back, but the midfield is struggling to deal with the transition and Real Madrid have pace and quality in the attacking areas to exploit those issues.
However, the makeshift backline does look incredibly vulnerable right now and that may just give Manchester City a very narrow edge, especially in the First Leg at the Etihad Stadium.
The home team certainly benefit from the fact they won a FA Cup tie at a lower League opponent compared with Real Madrid having to play the derby against Atletico much later in the day.
This is could also aid Manchester City who are still creating chances in the final third and they may just come out on top. It would be a huge surprise if the tie is still not pretty balanced for the Second Leg with Real Madrid playing their part in Manchester too, but backing the hosts to have a lead to take to the Spanish capital looks the play.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester City 3-2 Real Madrid
