Italian Serie A
2026-01-11 - Inter Milan vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 11 January 2026, 20:45 CET
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Inter Milan Team News
Nothing is new in the blue side of Milano. Inter keeps steamrolling all opponents except the top ones, to which it humbly loses. Fortunately for the Nerazzuri, there are no true top sides in Italy except themselves, so defeats in Serie A are very rare. You need to be Liverpool or Atletico Madrid to cause a problem to Inter.
There is a certain chance that Napoli could be one of those sides that are too good for Inter, as they won 3-1 in their first meeting in late October in Naples -- four days after losing 6-2 at PSV Eindhoven.
That game simply ran away from Inter, a much better side that did much more, and they never managed to get back into it. It's one of those games. One team does everything right but the other plays like they have a cheat code on FIFA. Also, Napoli had De Bruyne in that game, at least until the penalty kick that he scored but injured himself in the process. He's still not back.
As the 3-1 still hurts, Inter will most definitely be determined to return the favour and to eliminate Napoli - currently four points behind - from the championship race. Two birds with one stone.
Napoli Team News
Napoli is running on Antonio Conte's ability for a while now. This side is missing two of its best players, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne, yet managed to get 12 wins in 18 matches and is still a candidate for winning it all. Like they did last season.
The harder it gets for Napoli, the better they do. They had a huge midfield injury crisis that forced Conte to field players on unnnatural positions, and they still managed to keep the winning streak going. It actually stopped when the real midfielders returned -- Napoli played 2-2 at home against Verona. And that was only the third non-win in last 12 outings in all competitions for Napoli. In the league they have 5 wins in last 7. Most of these came with that strange midfield.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni - Louis Henrique, Barella, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco - Lautaro, Thuram. Coach Chivu.
Napoli (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus - Politano, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola - Elmas, Lang - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
The Betting Market
The bookmakers aren't giving Napoli much chance here as Inter's win is priced at 1.73. This is a price we'd expect against a much softer top-six Italian team, not Napoli, the price should be higher. Napoli deserves more credit.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.95 so this could be one way to give credit to Napoli and bet on them to score too. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10, with 1.72 for the Under.
The Betting Verdict
While we fully expect Inter to win this, we won't bet on it for less than 1.80. Instead, we'll try to benefit from a seemingly wrong estimate that this game will be low-scoring. BTTS-Yes sounds good. Napoli will find a way to at least make this derby interesting, especially as they have nothing to lose, they're four points behind and must be looking to claim three points here. For that, you need to score.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter 2-1 Napoli
