Champions League
2025-02-19 - Real Madrid vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Play Off Round Second Leg
Wednesday 19th February 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid
Any kind of positive result would have had Real Madrid feeling good after the First Leg of this Play Off Round tie, but even Carlo Ancelotti has to be surprised that a lead has been earned. The defending Champions were trailing at the Etihad Stadium with five minutes left, but Real Madrid took advantage of the Manchester City nerves and a 3-2 lead makes them strong favourites to progress further.
Nothing will be taken for granted by Real Madrid, who have not been in the most consistent form, and in recent years away teams have had successes when visiting the Santiago Bernebeu. They have only lost 1 of their last 17 home Champions League games, but that was against AC Milan in the Group Stage and Real Madrid had also been trailing 0-2 against Borussia Dortmund before an epic fightback.
Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw by Osasuna this past weekend in a fixture where Jude Bellingham was sent off. The inconsistent form has seen Real Madrid win 2 of their last 5 games in all competitions and they needed injury time goals to win both of those. Real Madrid have won 2 of their last 4 home games in normal time and were held to a 1-1 draw by Atletico Madrid in their most recent fixture here.
Injuries have been piling up for the home team, but both David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger could be involved in the Second Leg. A number of players are at risk of missing the Last 16 First Leg through suspension, which is going to be something the manager will be thinking about.
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola was very proud of his team after the crushing win over Newcastle United this past weekend and it is a win that has kept Manchester City on track to return to the Champions League next season. The club is also firmly involved in a big legal battle with the Premier League, which they feel they are edging, but the players and staff will only be focusing on the Champions League Play Off Round Second Leg.
Late goals have been hurting Manchester City over the last three months and defensive lapses have been a huge part of the relative downfall- all of that was evident in the 2-3 home loss to Real Madrid in the First Leg. There is a big challenge in front of Manchester City to turn this tie around having won 1 of their last 5 Champions League ties on their travels, while losing the last 3 in a row.
Manchester City's win over Newcastle United makes it 8 successes in 12 fixtures played in all competitions, although there have been 3 defeats suffered in that run. The side came from behind to avoid the upset at Leyton Orient in the FA Cup Fourth Round, while Manchester City had also lost back to back away games at Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal prior to that.
Manuel Akanji has been ruled out until at least the March international break, while Jack Grealish is a doubt. Pep Guardiola was able to rest the likes of Nathan Ake, Ruben Dias and Kevin De Bruyne on Saturday and all could be involved in this Second Leg.
Head to Head
These two are very familiar foes in recent years as they complete a meeting in the Champions League for a fourth season in a row.
Real Madrid have surprisingly only won 1 of their last 4 home games against Manchester City and the last two in the Spanish capital have both ended in draws.
Prediction
It took a bit of time for the First Leg to really spark into life, but both Real Madrid and Manchester City showed their ability to punish the defensive issues the other have been having.
The Second Leg sees key players returning for both teams, but the attacking players will be tough to contain and there is every chance that the tie ends up in a very similar direction that the First Leg did.
That could mean a tight, tension-filled first half, but at some stage Manchester City have to take risks and Real Madrid have shown how much they can punish them on the counter.
Carlo Ancelotti may not want his team to sit back on the lead- the away goals rule no longer factors into the UEFA ties and so the advantage of scoring three goals in Manchester is not as great as it once was.
Real Madrid have not exactly been playing with a lot of confidence over the last month and so there is work to do against a Manchester City team that may be a little healthier than they were eight days ago.
Fixtures between these clubs have featured plenty of goals of late and this is another that may end up moving that way, especially if one of the teams have to take chances in the final twenty minutes. Late goals were scored in the First Leg and that could be the case again with at least four set to be provided over the ninety minutes to be played in Madrid.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid 3-2 Manchester City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 3.5 Goals at 1.80 with SportBet.One
