Champions League
2025-03-04 - Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Tuesday 4th March 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid
After beating Manchester City in the Play Off Round, Real Madrid would have certainly been hoping to avoid Atletico Madrid when the draw was being made for the Last 16 of the competition. They may be amongst the favourites to win the Champions League yet again, but this is a big test for Carlo Ancelotti's team and there will be much anticipation for the First Leg.
They were quite clearly the superior team against Manchester City in the Play Off Round last month and Real Madrid moved through 6-3 on aggregate without the drama of recent meetings against the English Champions. After a slow and inconsistent start to the Champions League this season, Real Madrid have won 5 in a row in this competition and they have won 5 of their last 6 home games in the premier European tournament.
Real Madrid had been unbeaten in 7 games in all competitions, but that run was ended in a 2-1 loss at Real Betis this past weekend which has handed the Spanish title initiative to their rivals. Home form has been important for this season and Real Madrid have won 7 of their last 9 in front of their own fans.
Jude Bellingham will miss the First Leg through suspension, which is a blow for the defending Champions. Dani Ceballos and Federico Valverde are both considered doubtful.
Atletico Madrid
After rivals Real Madrid were beaten in Seville, Atletico Madrid took over at the top of the Spanish Primera Division for a few hours before Barcelona moved past them. Diego Simeone deserves a lot of credit for the way he has just reshaped his style to make Atletico Madrid a more attacking outfit, but without completely abandoning the things that have made the manager very successful.
They finished above Real Madrid in the Champions League Group and that earned Atletico Madrid a direct spot in the Last 16 of the competition and the team are still chasing the 'treble'. The side have won 5 Champions League games in a row to force their way into the top eight of the Group table, and Atletico Madrid have won their last 3 away games in this competition.
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions and they have won 6 of those fixtures played. Two late goals earned the team a 4-4 draw in the Copa Del Rey Semi Final First Leg at Barcelona and also means Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 4 on their travels and have scored at least three goals in 3 of those matches.
Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke are both doubts.
Head to Head
Both Spanish La Liga Madrid derby games have finished 1-1 this season.
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 8 derby games in normal time, but each of the last 3 have ended 1-1.
The last 5 games hosted by Real Madrid against Atletico Madrid have finished in draws in normal time and 4 have ended in that same 1-1 scoreline.
Prediction
This looks to be the tie of the Last 16 Round and both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will feel very confident about their chances of progressing.
The winner is going to be amongst the favourites to win it all later in the season, but both Carlo Ancelotti and Diego Simeone will have a huge amount of respect for the other.
Games between the Madrid rivals have been competitive and tightly fought out and the 1-1 scoreline has become one that comes up very often. The last 3 overall have all ended 1-1, while the last 5 fixtures hosted by Real Madrid have ended in draws in normal time and 4 of those have been 1-1.
Real Madrid are without Jude Bellingham, which is going to hurt, but they should still create the majority of chances in this game. That has been the case in recent meetings when hosting Atletico Madrid, but the well organised visitors have been able to find a way to contain the top attacking threats.
This is not the Atletico Madrid many associate with the current manager though and that means they will look to get forward and hurt Real Madrid. They have had success doing that and the 4-4 draw in Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey First Leg at the end of February underlines the dangerousness of this Atletico Madrid team.
Atletico Madrid have been the more clinical of the teams when they have faced off, and there is unlikely to be much between them in the First Leg as neither looks to lose their grip on earning a place in the Quarter Final.
The last 9 Madrid derby games hosted by Real Madrid have seen 8 end with fewer than three goals shared out in normal time.
Of course the attacking players that will be on the field will be posing a threat throughout, but these teams are extremely well versed in what the other wants to do and neither manager will want to take a big risk in the First Leg.
This could lead to another tight, competitive derby which leaves all to play for in the Second Leg next week.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid
