UEFA Cup
2006-04-27 - Middlesbro vs Steaua Bucharest
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
It's not been easy to pick the goal scorers so far this week in Europe - because we haven't seen any goals at all with both Champions League fixtures finishing 0-0, in tight tense affairs.And we could be in for more of the same in Thursday night as both UEFA Cup semi-finals are similarly placed.
First up let's take in the action in England at Middlesbro's Riverside Stadium as they host Steaua Bucharest and the hosts will be trying to recover from a frist leg 0-1 defeat.
Middlesbrough will be seeking a hat-trick, of sorts as Steve McClaren's men also lost away games in the previous two knockout rounds, but prevailed by virtue of some good
home form, including a last minute goal from Massimo Maccarone in the last round to win 4-1 on the night and edge out Basel 4-3 on aggregate.
MIDDLESBRO (England) EURO = 7-2-4 16:8
HOME EURO = 5-0-1 12:2
Middlesbro have had a hectic schedule in the last two months and in the last seven days it has appeared to catch up on them a bit with a pair of performances that lacked energy in the second half.
The 0-1 loss in Bucharest was a fair result although Middlesbro did have a few chances early on and did hit the woodwork, but after the break the Romanian side dominated.
And it was a similar story in Sunday's FA Cup semi-final - with Boro looking good during the first half but fading away during the second 45 minutes and in the end West Ham were worth the win.
So can Boro turn it around here? Maybe.
It's a season defining game for Boro now - certainly the groundswell of comments on the forum suggests that the home fans are going to turn-up in droves for this game and that will give the players a boost.
Secondly, Boro will be strengthened by the return of three players who missed the first leg with defenders Gareth Southgate and Chris Riggott back on board and Australian Mark Viduka up front.
It's probably the return of "fatty" Viduka that is most important for the side. The play revolves around Viduka when he's on the pitch - and Boro are going to need a couple of goals to make the final in Eindhoven.
One big loss is first choice keeper Mark Schwarzer with a broken cheekbone. He'll be replaced by the solid Brad Jones - but Schwarzer's organisational experience will be missed.
S. BUCHAREST (Romania) EURO = 7-5-1 21:4
AWAY EURO = 3-3-0 10:2
For Steaua Bucharest this game is likely to be one of defence and counter attack.
It's a role that the Romanian side plays well - they've conceded just 4 goals in 12 UEFA Cup games and their biggest wins have come on the road, beating Dutch side Heerenveen 3-1 and Spanish club Sevilla 3-0.
However, a lot of the midfield cohesion that powers that sort of play will be missing after both Banel Nicolita and Sorin Parachev picked up bookings in the first match and are suspended here.
That is offset somewhat by the surprise return of striker Victoras Iocob, who has been included in the squad despite not playing since mid March when he injured a shoulder. He has 5 UEFA Cup goals this season and must be a threat.
The public talk is about how Steaua are going to play for another 0-0 draw (they've managed 4 0-0 scores in their first 12 games) as that will give the Romanian side a ticket for the final.
I think that's a sneaky smokescreen - because if Steaua can score then that will give them a huge cushion to win the tie - so look for quick breaks.
HEAD TO HEAD
The two clubs have never faced each other, indeed Middlesbro had never played Romanian opposition before but Steaua Bucharest does have English playing experience.
When playing English opposition in Romania, Steaua are dominant and are now 4-1-0, including the 1-0 win over Boro last week.
But when Steaua have travelled to England it's been a different story with Steaua losing to Aston Villa (0-2) and Liverpool (0-1) while drawing with both West Ham and Southampton for a 0-2-2 away record in England
THE VERDICT
It's a bit of a lottery isn't it?
- Major team changes for both sides,
- The home team exhausted from competing in so many different competitions,
- The visitors will play a waiting game.
It's easy to write about a dozen very different scenarios that COULD take place, however we might take a lead from what we've already seen this week.
Steaua Bucharest are in the box seat to qualify - they need a win, a draw, or even a single goal loss (as long as they score and away goal) - and the bookies are offering as much as 1.75 for that to happen.
I think that the bookmakers have been influenced by Boro's great comeback last time against Basle - but Bucharest are better than Basle.
The Pick :
Middlesbro 1-1 Steaua Bucharest
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take STEAUA BUCHAREST TO QUALIFY at a good price.Update Note:
This price is dropping fast since publishing an hour ago the price is now down to a best of 1.62 - that's only a fair value.
