GREEK LEAGUE BETTING PICK - PANIONIOS V AEK ATHENS

Greek League

2007-10-07 - Panionios vs AEK Athens

A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris

This is, apart from the Panathinaikos-Olympiacos derby, the most exciting game of the season until now, because the most promising teams in Greece test with each other.

PANIONIOS

In the middle of the previous season Panionios was facing the verge of relegation, but with a splendid second half, not only managed to stay in Super League but also to claim an UEFA cup spot. On top of that, just 2 days ago, they secured presence in the UEFA group stage kicking out French Sochaux. Panionios is widely recognised as the dark horse in this season's championship, and this is greatly because of the hard work and influence of coach Linen (former Monchengladbach player).

For this match they will miss forward Konti as well as long term absentees Lurenso and Delura. The team is in top form, playing an attacking style of game, with french-algerian striker Djeabbour having already scored 3 goals for the league and a couple more for the UEFA cup. In their home ground of Nea Smyrni there will be no fans of AEK and i expect a very strong home support, especially after the huge success of qualifying for the UEFA cup.

AEK ATHENS

Here we have the most serious title contender in my opinion. AEK have formed a very strong squad, at least for domestic challenge, signing players experienced and quality plyers like Rivaldo or Arruabarena. They have also found a goal machine in the face of Ismael Blanco, an Argentinian that has already scored 4 goals in 3 games. This is their first serious trial of the season as they have only faced weak sides in their last 3 games and Sevilla was just too strong for them in the Champions League qualifiers.

AEK have also qualified for the group stage of the UEFA cup, having an easier mission as they faced Salzburg. One point in favor of Panionios is that AEK played in plastic grass midweek and maybe this has taken their toll on them. Brazilian forward Manduca is doubtful for this match while defensive midfielder Zikos and left winger Manu are back in the squad.

HEAD TO HEAD

I have amassed a lot of previous results for this game (i just post Panionios home games). As you can see in the past 9 meetings, dating back to 1998, the game at Nea Smyrni is never easy for AEK as they have won only 4 times. I wouldn't expect that, but seeing the results one can observe that most games are high scoring.

Panionios : AEK Athens 3:1 13.05.2007
Panionios : AEK Athens 0:2 31.10.2005
Panionios : AEK Athens 1:1 13.02.2005
Panionios : AEK Athens 2:2 27.09.2003
Panionios : AEK Athens 1:1 19.01.2003
Panionios : AEK Athens 2:6 09.12.2001
Panionios : AEK Athens 2:0 02.12.2000
Panionios : AEK Athens 0:2 03.05.2000
Panionios : AEK Athens 1:3 23.08.1998

Greek Cup

Panionios : AEK Athens 0:0 02.03.2005
Panionios : AEK Athens 1:1 05.02.2003
Panionios : AEK Athens 2:1 19.04.2000

VERDICT

This is really a hard came to call as it is very difficult to judge how the midweek games will affect both teams. Also noone can tell which of the two teams,both being in-form, will appear better in this match. One observation is that OVER 2.5 goals is certainly worth a punt, judging from past meetings and also from the fact that both teams together have scored 11 games in the first 3 matches of the league (conceding none though!). I have to admit that this bet is totally counter-intuitive for me and i will wait until tomorrow to make my mind.

Although i think that AEK is a better quality team, i will go with PANIONIOS for this match. I hope that strong home support,midweek travel for AEK, and a good day from Panionios can pay out the generous 3.65 (betfair,before comission). As last week i will propose a more conservative bet of 1X or draw no bet on Panionios for people that don't like to chase big odds cause straight home win is quite risky.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Stats point to OVER 2.5 GOALS