Champions League
2008-03-11 - Inter Milan vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Mario
Reputations at Stake at the San Siro
Inter Milan celebrated their 100th birthday on the weekend, with a special celebration, and the Nerazzurri will need to produce something out of the ordinary on Tuesday night to overturn to the two-goal Champions League deficit to Liverpool.
The Italians will certainly have to take the game to the Premiership side, whose resilience will be severely tested.
Reputations will be on the line as Inter were emphatic winners of last season’s Serie A, but their achievements were questioned because of the fall-out from Calcio-Poli.
This season, Roberto Mancini’s men are on course for a repeat performance, which should help silence domestic critics, but the Nerazzurri are yet to prove themselves of the European stage, and are facing another early exit, unless their star-studded team can pull out a huge performance on Tuesday night.
Expectation will weigh particularly heavily on the shoulders Zlatan Ibrahimovich, who is due a big performance, having been criticised for too often goes missing in the big Champions League games.
The Swede’s opposite number, Fernando Torres, also has an opportunity to establish his growing reputation by producing a memorable performance in Europe.
El Nino has scored seven goals in his last three Premiership games, including two hat-tricks, but an early strike at the San Siro could prove more priceless than all of those.
It is no coincidence that the Spaniard’s sparkling form has coincided with a hot streak for captain, Steven Gerrard, so often the catalyst for Liverpool’s best performances.
Vice-captain, Jamie Carragher, another true Red, will play his 100th European tie for the club, hoping to get a step closer to a third Champions League final in four years.
Mancini, Inter’s coach, has admitted ‘we are not in excellent condition’ and that his club need everything to fall right. Marco Materazzi is suspended after dismissal in the first leg, creating problems in central defence given that Walter Samuel and Ivan Cordoba remain long term absentees.
Hernan Crespo is a major doubt, while Cambiasso, Stankovic and Ibrahmiovic have all just returned from injury.
PinnacleSports.com make Inter Milan favourites on the night 2.200 (-0.5 & -1) with Liverpool 1.769 (+0.5 & +1) - but the Scousers are 1.293 to progress to the last eight, with Inter 4.11 underdogs.
THE VERDICT
A tricky match result to call even if the overall tie seems more clear-cut, as a Liverpool goal would leave Inter requiring a 3-goal margin of victory in order to progress, and that seems too tall of an order.
So, will Inter lose heart and concede that qualification is a lost cause, or will Liverpool come under heavy attack and perhaps have to settle for a single-goal loss but still qualify?
I'm picking that the first of these things happen and that both sides settle for a draw after about 70 minutes if/when Liverpool score - as the price is better.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter Milan 1-1 Liverpool (risk of 2-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Consider a wager on the DRAW if betting on the match result.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take LIVERPOOL with a +1/2 goal handicap start.
