English Premier
2008-11-22 - Middlesbrough vs Bolton Wanderers
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
England Premier League
Saturday 22nd, November 2008 - Kickoff 15:00 GMT
Middlesbrough
Boro have gone 5 games undefeated and Gareth Southgate would love to extend the run against Bolton. Boro have walked away with a win at Villa park and a draw in Goodison Park and many fancy Boro to take all 3 points in this game.
Boro currently have Riggott, Shawky, Huth and Willams out while Aliadiere and Mido are both doubtful. With Tuncay Sanli playing well and hard in midweek for Turkey, I do expect him to feel the effects of the midweek game if Sanli were to play a full 90 minutes.
Steward Downing impressed me in midweek and I believe he is a key figure in this match.
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton was on a two game winning streak before losing out to Liverpool last week.
Gary Megson has only Vaz Te out injured. With Elmander recovering and gaining match fitness, I do feel he is a treat to this Boro side.
Currently Bolton’s main threat comes from set plays, knock downs from Davies and runs from Ricardo Gardner. With both side using the 4-4-2 formation, they are likely to cancel each other out in the middle of the park.
Kevin Nolan will one of the key figure in this game as his late run into the box should trouble this Boro defense. Jussi Jaaskelainan is the key to this game as the savings he is offering is nothing less than superb.
Betting Stats
Under the asian handicap line this season, Boro have have only managed to win two from the possible 6. The wins came against Spurs and Man City, while Boro lost to the likes of WBA, West Ham and Chelsea. Definitely not an impressive record.
On the other hand, Bolton have lost three from the possible six on the road, based on the asian handicap line. The defeats came against Newcastle, Fulham and Spurs.
With similar stats for both team, I can see the asian handicap slightly favoring Bolton.
THE VERDICT
Given the +0.5 handicap start, Bolton seems to be a better option as I expect this game to be a draw.
However there is a possibility that Boro might just win by the odd goal, therefore my main bet would be Under 2.5 goals.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Under 2.5 goals (main bet) best price is 1.68 @ CanbetWith 3.40 the price for a draw, this seems to be a value bet for punters prepared to take a risk.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Bolton with a +0.5 handicap headstart.
