Spanish La Liga
2008-12-07 - Real Madrid vs Sevilla
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Sunday 7th December 2008 - Kickoff 20:00
This should be a close encounter as Real Madrid is currently lying in 4th position while Sevilla is just one place below them. Both sides as they both lost last weekend and would love to bounce back as soon as possible.
Real Madrid (4th Home Rec : 5-1-0 21:11)
Real Madrid is in all sorts of problems, on and off the pitch. Their defeat against Getafe was simply awful.
Bernd Schuster has tons of problems at the moment. His side is not playing well as a unit and questions are raised over his managerial skills. Ikea Casillas, regarded as one of the world’s best goal keeper has been in poor form this season, letting in 20 goals in 13 matches, by far the worst record among the top 8 teams in the league.
In defense, the back four looks to be out of position from time to time again. The first goal that they conceded last week against Getafe was simply due to poor making. How on earth would you allow your opponents to have a free header?
To make matters worse, in midfield, without Diarra’s protection, Real would be even more vulnerable at the back. In addition, with Wesley Sneijder set to miss the game, the firepower going up front would be reduced.
Team news :
Cannavaro, Robben and Higuain are all available after recovering for their recent injury. Bernd Schuster latest casualty on the treatment table would be Dutch International Wesley Sneijder while Ruben De La Red, Diarra, Nistelrooy, Torres and Pepe remains sideline.
Probable line up for Real Madrid would be Casillas, Ramos, Cannavaro, Metzelder, Marcelo, Gago, Robben, Van der Vaart, Guti, Raul and Higuain.
Sevilla (5th Away Rec: 3-2-1 7:4)
Sevilla on the other hand have their problem of their own.
Brazilian hit-man Luis Fabiano is set to miss this game following his red card against Barcelona last weekend. Fabiano is a key player to this Sevilla side but his absentee would allow Manalo Jimenez to set out a 4-5-1 formation, leaving Frederic Kanoute as a lone striker.
By setting out this formation, I believe the 5 man midfield would pressure this weak Real Madrid side by not giving them time on the ball at all.
Team News :
Manalo Jimenez will be without Ernesto Chevaton, David Prieto, Enzo Maresca, Lautaro Acosta and Arouna Kone. With the lack of striker at his disposal, Jimenez has called leading reserve striker Temmu Pukki into the side.
Betting Statistic :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Real Madrid have LOST five out of their six home games. The only win came back in September when they whack 7 goals pass Sporting Gijon.
Sevilla on the other hand, have only LOST a single game out of their six away games.
Astonishingly, Real Madrid are ranked 19th at home based on the asian handicap statistics. A club like Real Madrid should be winning more games on the handicap than they currently have.
I cannot see how people could back Real Madrid even after knowing this statistic.
The Verdict
Yes, there is no doubt Madrid could just edge this game BUT as a punter and a bettor, statistic would have to come first and favour Sevilla.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Try considering a draw at a price of 3.40
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
take Sevilla to get a result with a +0.5 Headstart. (Main Bet)
