Champions League
2009-04-07 - Manchester United vs FC Porto
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, 7th April 2009 - Kickoff 19:45
MANCHESTER UNITED (England)
Home Form : Europe 2-2-0 : Domestic 1st 13-1-1
A month ago Manchester United were sweeping all before them, talking about a quintuple, and only the Catalans of Barcelona were perceived as a threat.
Pride comes before a fall - and it's been quite a fall.
Manchester United's 1-4 home thrashing at the hands of Liverpool caused more than three dropped points - it opened up significant psychological wounds - and the previously watertight United defence has been leaking.
A 0-2 loss at Fulham followed, and then United squeaked home 3-2 against Aston Villa on the weekend thanks to a last minute goal. So is it all going to go wrong? Or is it the wake-up call United need?
I think it will be the latter - United have quality, have talent, have experience, and huge depth - but it's also going to help to have some key players back who are well rested.
This is United's 15th quarter-final tie in Europe's élite club competition and their record is: P14 W10 L4. ManYoo beat AS Roma at this stage in both 2007 and 2008 and are now seeking a third consecutive semi-final appearance – a first for the English champions.
Manchester United Team News :
Nemanja Vidic, Wayne Rooney and Paul Scholes all return having been suspended for the win over Aston Villa.
But Rio Ferdinand and midfielder Anderson are set to miss Tuesday's game after both sat out training on Monday with injuries picked up on international duty, while striker Dimitar Berbatov is also sidelined with an ankle injury.
FC PORTO (Portugal)
Away Form : Europe 2-1-1 : Domestic 1st 9-2-1
And it would pay to not underestimate the Dragons of FC Porto who have put together a sequence of 16 undefeated domestic league games (12-4-0) with 11 of those wins coming by a margin of 2+ goals.
In Europe Porto have been a little less dominant. Porto advanced by defeating Atlético Madrid on away goals after a 2-2 aggregate draw (2-2 away, 0-0 home). Prior to that they had finished top of Group G with a record of W4 D0 L2.
FC Porto Team News :
Colombian international Freddy Guarin the Porto mid-field maestro is set to return from an ankle sprain and has been included in Jesualdo Ferreira's squad for the match
Lisandro Lopez who was suspended for Porto's league victory at Guimaraes is also in the side.
Porto captain Pedro Emanuel and Nelson Benitez are both still sidelined with injury as is Jorge Fucile.
Head To Head
These sides have met three times in home/away contests and Porto have won two of them.
The Portuguese side beat United 6-5 on aggregate in the second round of the 1977/78 UEFA Cup Winners' Cup, winning 4-0 at home before United mounted a brave, if ultimately futile, fightback with a 5-2 victory at Old Trafford.
United came out on top when the sides met again in the 1996/97 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, recording a 4-0 first-leg success before a goalless draw in Portugal.
Porto made it 2-1 in the series beating Man Utd in the 2003/04 first knockout round. Benni McCarthy's two goals in the first leg at the Estádio do Dragăo overturned Quinton Fortune's opening strike for the Red Devils, before Costinha's late goal in Manchester secured a 1-1 draw and progress for José Mourinho's team.
United's overall record against Portuguese opposition is: W13 D2 L4. Their home record is: W8 D1 L0.
Porto's overall record against English opposition is: W5 D7 L10. Their away record in England is: W0 D1 L10.
THe Betting Verdict
The biggest stat in my mind is that Porto have conceded eight goals on their last two visits to England, going down 4-1 at Liverpool last season and 4-0 at Arsenal in the group stage of this campaign.
That suggests that if United can get on top early then there is a chance that the English champions can win by enough to effectively kill off the tie in the first match.
However, lets not go overboard and fall into the trap of journolistic hyperbole. Let's recognise that United are wobbling a bit and that Porto are the best side in Portugal and having another dominant season.
If Porto display an attacking edge similar to their efforts in the last three European games (2 away goals scored in each match) then an away goal might cause a scare and create a much more tense occasion and a 1st leg result that leaves it all to play for in the second match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester United 2-1 Porto
