Brazilian Serie A
2009-07-19 - Cruzeiro vs Corinthians
A Sports Betting Pick by Merlin
Brazil Serie A (Round 12)
Mineirao in Belo Horizonte (Capacity 75,000)
Sunday 19th July 2009 at 4.00pm (local time) - 20:00 GMT
CRUZEIRO (16th - Home Rec : 3-1-2 8-8)
Still reeling from last Wednesday’s defeat in the final of the Copa Libertadores when beaten 1-2 at home to the Argentinian side, Estudiantes, Cruzeiro will be looking to get back on track here.
The Foxes believed they had outwitted the Argies earning a scoreless draw at their place, they were surely going to beat them at Mineirao? But it wasn’t to be, they were cleverly outfoxed by the team from La Plata who are now of course, officially, South American Champions.
The Foxes have to rebuild now, not only the team but their confidence too.
They have certainly lost the Lyon defender, Anderson, who returned to his club after his loan spell ended on Thursday. Further to that, they know only too well they have to bring in reinforcements from somewhere to get their Serie A campaing going.
This seasons record speaks for itself, only 3 league wins from 10 games, and it gets worse, because in those stats there is only 1 draw. It follows then they have suffered 6 defeats from 10, which doesn’t bode to well facing an in form, Corinthians side.
Cruzeiro Squad :
Fabio, L Silva, Jonathan, T Heleno, G Magrao, Wagner, Henrique, M Paraná, Ramires, Kleber, Andrey, Fabinho, Fabrício, Elicarlos, Athirson, Thiago, Bernado, Vieira de Souza
Cruzeiro League Stats :
Games played: 10
Wins: 3
Losses: 6
Draws: 1
Red Cards: 3
Yellow Cards: 26
Goals Scored: 9 (from 108 shots/headers on target)
Passing errors: 27%
CORINTHIANS (8th - Away Rec : 0-2-3 1:7)
Corinthians beat Sport of Recife at home 4-3 on Thursday maintaining a top 6 position in Serie A.
The Timao (big team), have started the 2009 campaign in great style and after recently winning the Cup look serious title challengers.
Former pie eater, “Fat Boy Ronaldo” has been revitalized since returning to Brazil and is currently scoring goals for fun. The Corinthians striker netted two with his head on Thursday and despite being somewhat slower and less agile than he was at his peak. He still knows where the net is and looks a force to be reckoned with this season.
Corinthians Squad :
Felipe, Chicao, William, Diogo, Marcelo Oliveira, Cristian, Douglas, Elias, Ronaldo, Jorge Henrique, Marcelinho, Diego Silva, Jucilei, Jean
Corinthians League Stats :
Games played: 11
Wins: 5
Losses: 4
Draws: 2
Red Cards: 2
Yellow Cards: 31
Goals Scored: 16 (from 103 shots/headers on target)
Passing Errors: 35%
THE BETTING VERDICT
Despite being favorites, as can be seen from their recent record, Cruzeiro are no home certainty. One thing is certain, they will be quite desperate to win this game but whether they can overcome a free scoring and in form Corinthians team is another matter.
The bookmakers have Cruzeiro at even money (2.00), reckoning on a 50% chance of a home win, with the away win at 3.50 and the draw at 3.20.
I have to say, Corinthians do look the value bet at 3.50 as this equates to a percentage chance of winning of 28.57%. I think they ought to be around 2.88 for the away win and are worthy of a small wager at 3.50 or better.
This is not going to be a goal scoring fest so for those of you who like to play unders and overs, the under 2.50 or 3.50 goals looks a sound option, the latter especially. In actual fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see a no score draw here.
BEST BETTING TIP :
The moment of truth, this is where I stick my neck on the block.As mentioned earlier, CORINTHIANS are the value pick at 3.50, so it’s a straight wager on that with a 0-0 correct score cover at around 9.50
