Copa America 2011
2011-07-13 - Paraguay vs Venezuela
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : Copa America 2011
Wednesday 13 July 2011 - Kickoff 7:15pm (Local Time)
This game is live on TV
Preview
Venezuela can rest easy after Argentina's win over Costa Rica ensured they will be in the Quarter Finals regardless of what happens here. Paraguay, on the other hand, are under pressure to gain a positive result if they want to ensure they are also still involved in the competition on Saturday.
Venezuela can be very proud of their efforts so far in the competition after they drew with Brazil in the opening game before beating Ecuador 1-0 to earn a place in the Quarter Finals. The team may have surprised people by being in this position and they are yet to concede a goal in the competition.
Paraguay were a couple of minutes away from guaranteeing their own progression to the Quarter Finals when they were leading Brazil 2-1 in their 2nd game of the competition. However, a late goal from Fred means they have drawn both their opening games and now need at least a point to ensure they go through as one of the best third placed sides.
It is telling that confidence is fairly high in the Paraguay camp. The team reached the Quarter Finals of the World Cup last Summer and their manager has made a point in suggesting his team is actually playing better than they did last year.
Their defence is the strongest point of the team and they will look to make sure they do not fall behind early and place additional pressure on their own shoulders.
The Venezuela camp is also fairly confident in their abilities to go deep in this tournament this year, although reaching the Quarter Finals looks to be already exceeding expectations, outside of the country at least.
If Venezuela lose and Brazil win, the team are likely to face the winner of this group in the next round. However, a Venezuela win will ensure they play the young Costa Rica side instead, so there is plenty of motivation for them to pick up a positive result in this match.
Head to Head
These two nations last met in a World Cup Qualifier in Venezuela in 2009, a game Paraguay won 1-2
They have played 8 times in the last 11 years, with Paraguay winning 5 of those games and Venezuela winning 2.
4 of the last 6 games have been won by Paraguay.
Prediction
The odds on the Paraguay win look a little on the short side to me, although I do think they are the more likely winners of the two teams.
However, neither side will want to open up too much as a draw will see both through so we could be in for a cautious start to the match. Paraguay will not want to go 0-1 down as that will only increase the pressure on them, while Venezuela would dearly like to hold on to top spot in the group and hope to nick a winner late.
With that being said, I can understand why the under 2.5 goals have been priced as they low as it has, but there may still be a spot of value in the Under 1.5 goals option.
The Group has not had many goals scored in it as defence has been king- take away the 4 goals in the Paraguay v Brazil game and there has been just 1 goal in the 3 other games played.
Both teams had 0-0 draws in their opening games, while Venezuela have scored just 1 goal in their 2 games.
Paraguay are the more likely winners, but the Under 1.5 goals option has the most appeal to me here.
The Pick :
Paraguay 1-0 Venezuela
