Rugby
2011-10-02 - Wales vs Fiji
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Pool D
Sunday, 2nd October 2011 - Kickoff 18:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: Wales 7th, Fiji 16th
Wales
This game has nothing riding on it for Wales as they have already made it through to the Rugby World Cup 2011 Quarter Finals.
If Samoa had managed to claim a bonus point against the Springboks things may have been different. The Fijians are out of contention for a quarter-final berth.
Wales have been beaten twice by Fiji, first in the 2007 World Cup, when they were upset 38-34, and again in November 2010 when the teams drew 16-16 at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.
Wales Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
11/09 South Africa 17 - 16 Wales
18/09 Wales 17 - 10 Samoa
26/09 Wales 81 - 7 Namibia
Team and Tactics
The Wales coach Warren Gatland is aware of the unpredictability of the Fijian style of rugby and has named a well balanced team.
Wing Shane Williams, Wales' all-time leading try scorer, is out with a thigh strain but I think there is still plenty of attacking potential in the Wales team to make this game fairly much a procession.
Starting Wales Team Lineup :
1. Gethin Jenkins, 2. Huw Bennett, 3. Adam Jones, 4. Bradley Davies, 5. Luke Charteris, 6. Ryan Jones, 7. Sam Warburton (c), 8. Toby Faletau, 9. Mike Phillips, 10. Rhys Priestland, 11. Leigh Halfpenny, 12. Jamie Roberts, 13. Scott Williams, 14. George North, 15. Lee Byrne
Replacements :
16. Lloyd Burns, 17. Paul James, 18. Alun Wyn Jones, 19. Andy Powell, 20. Lloyd Williams, 21. Stephen Jones, 22. Jonathan Davies
Fiji
Fiji have performed at a level expected of them at this world cup - big, strong, but technically naive. The 15-man game has gone backwards in Fiji in recent years - as Fijian players have embraced rugby sevens as a more entertaining (and less demanding?) game.
Fiji Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
10/09 Fiji 49 - 25 Namibia
17/09 South Africa 49 - 3 Fiji
25/09 Fiji 7 - 27 Samoa
Team and Tactics
Fiji like play "sevens style" rugby and their offloading skills and their momentum can be impressive - when they fire. They've had two tough games against South Africa and Samoa. It hasn't been an easy Pool for Fiji but should at least have had a good rest.
The Fijians have named a couple of younger players in the team to play Wales and the coach claims "They will bring a lot of energy, enthusiasm and determination". "We just want to have fun.". Perhaps in an attempt to lull Wales into a false sense of security?
Starting Fiji Team Lineup :
1 Waisea Nailago, 2 Sunia Koto, 3 Setefano Somoca, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 5 Wame Lewaravu, 6 Rupeni Nasiga, 7 Sakiusa Matadigo, 8 Netani Edward Talei, 9 Vitori Tomu Buatava, 10 Nicky Little, 11 Michael Tagicakibau, 12 Gaby Lovobalavu, 13 Ravai Susau Fatiaki, 14 Albert James Vulivuli, 15 Iliesa Lomani Rakuka Keresoni
Replacements :
16 Viliame Veikoso, 17 Campese Ma'afu, 18 Mala Ravulo, 19 Akapusi Qera, 20 Nemia Kenatale, 21 Seremaia Bai, 22 Vereniki Goneva
Other Variables
Referee : Wayne Barnes (ENG)
The Venue : Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
The Weather : Cloudy with drizzle. Breezy north easterly winds. Not good for either the highball or ball handling. Potential for a messy game with lots of turnovers.
The Verdict
Fiji's size and strength has proved to be a problem for Wales in recent encounters, which frankly has been a bit of a surprise to me.
Wales should win this game and with some comfort, but some of the tackles will be bone-shuddering, and it will be a fiercely contested match in the rucks and mauls.
A bet on Wales to win only pays peanuts - but I do expect Wales to do MOST of the scoring so a shot on Wales to SCORE FIRST is worth a play.
The Pick :
Wales 31 - 13 Fiji
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take WALES TO SCORE FIRST at 1.57 at Ladbrokes
