Europa League
2012-02-16 - Porto vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League, Last 32 First Leg
Thursday 16 February 2012 - Kick Off 8:05pm
This game is live on TV
Porto
Porto's first season without Andre Villa-Boas has been as disappointing for themselves so far as it has for their former manager at Chelsea, but they will feel they can make the best of it if they can retain the Europa League trophy they win last season. After a disappointing effort in the Champions League, this will at least keep the fans a little happier.
The team were drawn in a group along with Apoel, Zenit St. Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk and would have surely expected to qualify from the group, but finished behind the Cypriots and Russians to fall into this competition. Porto won their two games with Shakhtar but failed to beat the other teams. They also trail Benfica by 5 points domestically just a year after winning three trophies.
Porto have lost just 1 of their last 13 games in all competitions and they have won 9 of their last 10 games at home, including the last 6 in a row. However, two draws in their last two home games in the Champions League saw them exit that tournament and they will be aware that this will be a difficult game for them.
Marc Janko will be missing for the home side as he has an illness, but the ever-dangerous Hulk will be leading the line.
Manchester City
Just when you think there is going to be harmony between Carlos Tevez and Roberto Mancini, the Argentinian striker goes on record to accuse the manager of 'treating him like a dog'. While Tevez has returned to Manchester, the club are looking to keep the focus on this tough tie that would not have looked out of place as a last 16 tie in the Champions League.
Manchester City, like rivals Manchester United, have made it clear that they want to perform in this competition and will be playing strong teams to ensure they move through. With the Carling Cup and FA Cup exits, City can concentrate on playing this game as they have no games to play over the weekend. They were knocked out of the Champions League from a tough group including Bayern Munich, Napoli and Villarreal, and it was failure to beat the first two clubs that really ended up costing them. City finished with a 1-0-2 record away from home, including the infamous defeat at the Allianz Arena when Tevez refused to participate.
The team have won just half of their last 8 games in all competitions as they have suffered a little wobble in their form. City do come into this one having won back to back games in the Premier League to maintain their lead over United in the table, but they have won just 3 of their last 10 away games in all competitions. There has to be a little concern that after a blistering start to the season when they were scoring goals for fun that City have only scored more than 1 goal in 1 of their last 10 away games.
Yaya Toure has been a big miss for City and will join up with his team mates in Portugal having completed his time with Ivory Coast at the African Cup of Nations. Kolo Toure also returns from that tournament, while Mario Balotelli is available. Roberto Mancini has taken a strong team across to Portugal with the aim of winning this tie ahead of the second leg next Tuesday.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the teams in competitive football.
Porto had enjoyed a long unbeaten run at home against English teams in European competition, but they have now lost 2 of their last 3 here against Manchester United and Chelsea.
Prediction
This is a tough game to read as I think Porto are traditionally a tough team to play at this stadium and I don't think that will be any different on Thursday evening.
Porto have had a poor season by the standards set last season, but could gain so much from beating Manchester City here and knocking them out of the competition. They have proven they can cope with the Thursday-Sunday-Thursday demands the Europa League can place on teams during the hectic final months of the season, but are a little unfortunate that they are playing a Manchester City side that does not have any distractions this weekend so can focus on this game.
I think City have really been missing the presence of Yaya Toure over the last 6 weeks of the season, a period that has coincided with some of their poorest results all year. With the pressure on Roberto Mancini to deliver trophies, you can be sure they will play a strong team to put themselves in a position to complete progress to the next stage on Tuesday night at the Etihad Stadium.
The return of Yaya Toure is a boost, but an even bigger one can come from Mario Balotelli who has been serving a domestic ban as City have struggled for goals away from home. He is a player that could provide a spark and I think City can come away from this game with a win.
My only issue is their lack of goals away from home in recent games, but I think there will be space for them to exploit as Porto will surely attack and look for the goals to give them an advantage going back to Manchester next week.
With that in mind, I expect David Silva, Samir Nasri, Sergio Aguero and Mario Balotelli to have an opportunity to pick up the win from this ground and become the third English club to win here from the last 4 tries.
I find it tough to imagine City at 2.90 to win a game again this season (unless they draw Manchester United in the Europa League latter stages) and I think they have to be worth risked to put one foot into the last 16 with a win here.
The Pick :
Porto 1-2 Manchester City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take Manchester City @ 2.90
