English League One
2012-10-06 - Bury vs Swindon Town
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Championship
Saturday 6th October - Kickoff 3:00pm
Bury
Rock bottom Bury are finding life extremely tough in League One this season. With just 4 points from 9 games already it's clear they are going to struggle this season. The good news is they are only 4 points behind 20th placed AFC Bournmouth and safety. However if they keep dropping points the gap may well get out of hand and quickly.
Blackwell's side are winless all season (9) games and you have to go back to April of last season for their last league win. Confidence must be low at Gigg Lane as the weeks pass and still they fail to win games.
The home form is poor with just 1 draw and 3 defeats from 4. The 0-0 draw with Brentford is their only point and that was back in August. Since then defeats to Notts County (0-2), Preston (1-2) and MK Dons (1-4) have really derailed this side.
Conceding at least 2 goals in their last 3 away games is a big problem. In fact the 8 goals in 3 games is over 2.50 goals against and at home that's just not good enough.
Swindon
Di Canio's Swindon started the season excellently but have faltered a little but still they are nicely placed in 8th place. With 17 points they are just 1 behind the top 6 and they must target an away win here.
Swindon were on a 3 game winning run going into their last game at home to Colchester and the momentum was very much with the side. However, the U's took the points in a 1-0 win and Swindon must put this behind them and return to winning ways.
The away record is good with back to back away wins and they are now unbeaten in 3. Portsmouth (1-2) and Shrewsbury (0-1) are good wins and I think Di Canio may be getting his dressing room back following an altercation with his keeper earlier in the season.
Town have scored in their last 4 away games and average 1.50 away goals a game. If Swindon score a couple at Gigg Lane they will have a great chance for the away win.
Betting Verdict
Swindon are around evens to win this game and I can't put anyone off this price. It could be argued it's short for a League One game but Bury are in dire straights at the minute and are conceding a lot of goals at home.
However, I will take Swindon to score 2 goals or more as my bet. The hosts have conceded at least 2 in 3 of their 4 home games this year. The visitors have scored 2 or more in 2 of their last 3 as well so to get just under evens seems more than fair.
Bury are one of the poorest sides in this league and Swindon should get chances. With this bet we don't have to worry about them holding on for a win and given the smallest variance in price it looks the best bet.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Bury 1-2 Swindon
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 1.50 Swindon Goals at 1.91 Bet365
