Champions League
2019-12-10 - Ajax vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 10th December 2019 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Ajax
A win over Lille on Match Day 5 is good enough to give Ajax control of their own destiny and avoiding defeat in their final Group game will be enough to earn a spot in the Last 16. However there is some pressure to find the right balance going forward and at the back as a defeat would leave Ajax vulnerable to being knocked down into the Europa League despite already reaching 10 points in this Group.
The double header with Chelsea has just prevented Ajax from working their way out of the Group and the single point earned from those two matches means they are just 2 points clear of both The Blues and Valencia in the Group. Most will be expecting Chelsea to beat Lille at Stamford Bridge, but Ajax will be looking to concentrate on their own affairs. Surprisingly Ajax have been beaten in 3 of their last 8 home Champions League games and that is a record that should have the players highly concentrated ahead of this one.
Ajax had been unbeaten in 7 games in all competitions and had won 6 of those including 4 in a row, but all of those stats came to an end last Friday when the side were beaten 0-2 at home in the Dutch top flight. They have won 10 of their last 12 here in all competitions and Ajax had scored at least four goals in 3 straight wins at the Johan Cruyff Arena before that defeat to Willem II last time out.
David Neres and Zakaria Labyad are both missing for the home team.
Valencia
Missed chances could see Valencia living with some regret if they are not able to make their way out of this Champions League Group as they search for a way to at least equal Chelsea's result on Match Day 6. The Spanish side did earn the head to head advantage over Chelsea thanks to a 2-2 draw at home on Match Day 5, but Valencia will be ruing some wayward finishing from glorious positions that would have cemented their place in the Last 16.
That draw with Chelsea means both Valencia and the English club have the same number of points and both trail Ajax by 2 points in the Group. If both win they will go through together, but Valencia know they have to match whatever Chelsea do in their home game against Lille else they will be falling into the Europa League. The club have won 1 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League, although that did come at Stamford Bridge in this Group.
Valencia have lost 1 of their last 8 games in all competitions and they will be coming into this one with some confidence having beaten Villarreal and Levante in back to back fixtures. They have won half of their last 8 away games in all competitions so you can't rule a line through Valencia from earning the upset they will likely need in Amsterdam to progress.
A number of injuries are still hurting the Valencia squad, but both Ezequiel Garay and Jaume Costa should be available.
Head to Head
Ajax stunned Valencia with a 0-3 win at the Mestalla earlier in the Group.
These two clubs have only met once before in Amsterdam and that fixture ended in a 1-1 draw back in 2003.
Prediction
There is plenty on the line when Ajax and Valencia meet for the second time in the Group Stage of the Champions League on Tuesday and both teams are needing a result to guarantee their place in the next Round.
A win for either Ajax or Valencia will be enough to take them through, while anything less for Valencia means they will need to have a favour from Lille to prevent them falling into the Europa League.
The pressure is largely on Valencia as they will likely need to push for a win as most will assume Chelsea are going to get the better of their opponent in the other game in the Group. While Valencia have shown some real quality in the final third, the finishing has let them down at times and I do think that makes it hard to trust them.
They are also facing an Ajax team who have scored plenty of home goals all season and have been tough to beat here. While not as good as the team that reached the Champions League Semi Final six months ago, Ajax have shown they can produce the goods in the final third which forces teams to have to try and out-score them.
I do think Ajax have been a touch fortunate in the Group Stage so far in terms of the chances being scored compared to those they are allowing, but being at home and knowing avoiding a defeat will be enough to progress should give them a huge edge. As good as Valencia have been in recent games, they have not travelled that well in European competition and were very lucky to get away with a 0-1 win at Chelsea earlier in the Group.
It is possible they ride their luck again, but the more likely outcome is that Ajax are too strong and could potentially pick off their visitors as they chase a way back into the fixture. Ajax do score plenty of home goals so backing them to win a game featuring two or more goals is my selection here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Ajax 3-1 Valencia
