NCAA Football
2021-10-23 - Cincinnati Bearcats at Navy Midshipmen
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 8
Saturday 23rd October 2021 - Scheduled 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
There are most definitely some schools out there that may decide to pack in a season if they have made the same kind of start as the Navy Midshipmen (1-5), but players at this school are likely going to fight until the end. This almost certainly going to be a third losing season under Ken Niumatalolo, but the Midshipmen have been competitive in some of their losses to the better teams they have faced.
An eight point loss to the unbeaten Houston Cougars and a seven point loss to the unbeaten SMU Mustangs backs that up, but Navy were blown out by the Memphis Tigers in Week 7. This is now the fifth tough game in a row and you do have to wonder if the players are feeling a little wear and tear.
They may also be playing a potential College Football PlayOff team this week when hosting the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0) and it is going to be very difficult to slow down a team who are playing with style points very much on their mind. The Bearcats know merely being unbeaten may not be enough to earn a place in the PlayOff, although the longer the Houston Cougars and SMU Mustangs can maintain their own unbeaten runs will be a boost for whoever can win the American Athletic Conference Championship as an unbeaten team.
Head Coach Luke Fickell will know only too well that a single defeat will be costly and the Cincinnati Bearcats showed how strong they can be by blowing out the UCF Knights at home in Week 7. Road games are naturally much more difficult, but Cincinnati look like they have the schedule to not only win games, but win by such margins that the PlayOff Committee will find it hard to ignore them.
Desmond Ridder and the Offensive unit will always get the headlines, but the Cincinnati Bearcats have really impressed from a Defensive standpoint and now have a chance to lay down a marker to the rest of the Conference. Playing the triple-option is a challenge and it does mean games can feel like they are being shortened with the clock moving all the time, but Cincinnati did blow out the Navy Midshipmen in 2018 having lost on their last visit here in 2017.
It will be the reminder that the Coaches will lay out for the players to make sure they are focused and I do think the Bearcats are capable on the Defensive Line to contain Navy. So far this season this Midshipmen Offensive unit have struggled to match the standards that have been set by the triple option Offense on the ground and they are only picking up 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games.
That has been a season long problem for Navy and they are not expected to get a lot of change from the Bearcats Defensive Line which has prided itself on being able to clamp down on the run. There has not been a lot of confidence in Navy when they have been forced to throw the ball so the key for the Bearcats will be to also put up plenty of points and make the home team move away from the game-plan.
The expectation is that Cincinnati will be able to do that with plenty of success and the signs that Navy may be feeling the intensity of a very tough run of games was clear to see as they allowed the Memphis Tigers to score early and often in Week 7. The Bearcats will be looking to pummel the ball right at the Navy Defensive Line and this Offensive Line will feel they can win in the trenches judging by what we have seen all season.
Establishing the run has made life very easy for Desmond Ridder at Quarter Back and he should be faced with little pass rush pressure as he looks to move the ball through the air. It should give the Bearcats the balance on both sides of the ball to put up some big points and I am not sure Navy will be able to stay with them here.
You have to respect the effort you are likely to get out of the Navy Midshipmen, but Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road and I think they are a team on a mission. It is unlikely that Cincinnati will take their foot off the gas as they look to keep their name in the headlines and I think the Bearcats can cover a huge mark on the road.
Prediction
Lay the points with the road favourite.
The Pick :
Navy Midshipmen 13-44 Cincinnati Bearcats
