Champions League
2022-02-23 - Benfica vs Ajax
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Wednesday 23rd February 2022 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Benfica
When the Group Stage was drawn, some in Portugal would have recognised that there is a vulnerability in Barcelona that Benfica could exploit to move through to the Knock Out Rounds of the Champions League. Even then it will be a surprise to see Benfica in the Last 16 ahead of the Catalan giants, but the Portuguese team have been struggling domestically and arguably are the weakest of the sixteen teams left.
In most Groups the target is to reach 10 points to have a chance of progressing to the Knock Out Rounds, but Benfica managed to work their way out behind Bayern Munich with just 8 points. They were well beaten in both matches against Bayern Munich, but Benfica beat Barcelona and Dynamo Kiev at home. The side have won 6 of their last 7 Champions League games at the Stadium of Light.
Benfica are unbeaten in 3 games heading into the Last 16 First Leg, but they have only won 2 of their last 6 games in normal time. They beat Santa Clara 2-1 in their last home game, but Benfica had lost back to back fixtures here to Sporting Lisbon and Gil Vicente by the same 1-2 scoreline.
Haris Seferovic is a doubt for this fixture.
Ajax
It is very difficult for teams outside of the top five European Leagues to be able to hold onto the talent they have and that is particularly the case for Leagues like the Netherlands. The talent pool is well established coming out of Holland and that has prevented the likes of Ajax and PSV Eindhoven really producing consistent strong European campaigns as they have historically.
The current Dutch Champions are swimming against the tide, but Ajax have been doing that so effectively that manager Erik ten Haag has been linked with the vacant post at Manchester United. The club are a former four time European Cup Winner, while Ajax are back in the Knock Out Rounds of the Champions League for the first time since 2019. They won all 6 Champions League Group Stage matches to finish ahead of Sporting Lisbon and Borussia Dortmund.
Ajax have won 10 in a row in all competitions and they have conceded just a single goal in that time as they look to retain the title in the Netherlands. They have also won 8 away games in a row in all competitions and Ajax have only conceded three goals in that run too.
It sounds like a fully fit squad will be travelling to Lisbon for the First Leg of this Champions League tie.
Head to Head
This is the fourth season in which Benfica and Ajax will be meeting in a competitive fixture and the first time they meet since the Champions League Group Stage in the 2018/19 campaign.
Benfica have won none of the previous 3 home games against Ajax, although the last 2 have both ended in draws.
Prediction
These two clubs are amongst the biggest in pure name around Europe, although both Benfica and Ajax are not the consistent performers at this level these days as they once were.
Windows for success are much shorter for clubs outside the elite European Leagues as their talent is quickly hoovered up, but all credit has to be given to Erik ten Haag and Ajax for restocking as quickly as they have done.
They reached the Semi Final of the Champions League in 2019 and were seconds away from playing in the Final before conceding late at home against Tottenham Hotspur. Last season Ajax reached the Europa League Quarter Final and they are favourites to reach the Last Eight of the Champions League this time around too.
Ajax dominated their Group before Christmas and have been very efficient in attack, while conceding very little.
That makes them dangerous to the biggest European teams left in the competition and I think Ajax will have too much for Benfica.
The Portuguese team are not the dominant team domestically and are well behind Porto already, while this is a team that exploited the young, vulnerable Barcelona team to move into the Last 16. Conceding nine goals in a couple of defeats to Bayern Munich may underline how far Benfica are from the rest of the Last 16 in the Champions League and I am not sure they will be able to contain this Ajax team.
First goals are always important, but I think Ajax will have the majority of the better chances which should lead to a narrow lead to take back to Amsterdam. Winning away Knock Out Round ties in the Champions League is never easy, but Ajax look to be clear of Benfica and I think they can back up the 3 away wins in the Champions League Group Stage by securing another here.
One of those wins came in Lisbon and I think Ajax make it 2 from 2 in this City.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Benfica 0-1 Ajax
