Cricket
2008-07-13 - England vs South Africa
A Sports Betting Pick by chappers
First Test
Lords, Thursday July 10th to Monday July 14th Live on SKY
England Current Ranking 3rd with 110 Ranking Points
Right first off and I’m not going to confuse the awful England one day team with the test team, after all it's two different forms of the game and to be fair we are utter rubbish at the one day format of the game and have been for years.
So what of the England test team the same twelve man squad has been chosen that beat New Zealand 2-0 in the three test series that ran in May and June. The first test saw a draw after the first three days were interrupted constantly. England then went on to win the next two tests by 6 wickets and then destroying New Zealand in the third test by an Innings and 9 runs.
England Batting
Andrew Strauss was the top England batsman with an average of 66.50 in his four innings that he played and top scored with a 106. Captain Michael Vaughan came in next with an average of 50.00 then you have Kevin Pietersen with an average of 46.50 and the highest score for an England player with 115 not out. Then you see the problem as the next best average was Stuart Broad who came in with 48.17 and when you consider he bats down the order and to be fair was brought into the team as a bowler it's not hard to see that if the three players I've mentioned don’t score runs, there is a good chance that England with struggle.
Two of the biggest disappointments in the series were Colly and Bell. Both players were out of sorts with Colly only managing and average of 10.66 and a high score of 24 not out. Bell also needs to improve if he wants to keep his place as he only managed an average of 15.00 and a high score of 21 not out in the four innings he played.
So with Flintoff pushing for a place it could be that one of these two could lose their place in the test team if they don’t find some form in this game or they may be okay for this series with Flintoff still trying to prove his fitness but another failure at the bat for these two could see them shown the door.
England Bowling
When discussing who would make way if Simon Jones regains full fitness as it was agreed that a fully fit Jones must be in the team, it was decided that Jimmy Anderson would be the one to make way, which to be fair to him, could be harsh as he did take the most wickets in the test series v New Zealand with 19 wickets closely followed by Ryan Sidebottom with 17. Anderson best haul was 7/43 and his overall econ rate was 3.54, which is the worst of all the major bowlers from both teams. Of course Sidebottom and Monty have seemingly got their test places sorted for the foreseeable future with Sidebottom having an econ rate of 2.67 and Monty 2.88 and he took 9 wickets in the three games.
The one player that I really hope England stick with is Stuart Broad but as I’ve said is very handy with the bat and not to bad with the ball either. He took seven wickets in total and had an econ rate of 3.31 and a best haul of 2/10. With him only being 22 years old he is classed as the future of England cricket and coming up against South Africa will be good to see how well he is coming on.
South Africa Current Ranking 4th with 109 Ranking Points
South Africa are only 1 point behind England in the world ranking's and a win in England this summer will leapfrog them above England so this is a massive series for them, now I’ve not sure how the points system works but they are only two points behind India so a win this summer could see them move into second place.
South Africa played Bangladesh away in February and early March of this year and won the series 2-0 which cannot really be classed as a surprise, so for the stats I’ll use the test series that followed this one which was away in India where the series was drawn 1-1. The first test was a batsman paradise with SA scoring 540 in their first innings and India replied with 627 with SA then getting a further 331.
The second test saw a very easy SA win by an Innings and 90 runs but India saved the series with a final test win by 8 wickets. So it was the good and the bad for South Africa but I guess it wasn’t two bad as India of course is not an easy place to go.
South Africa Batting
Neil McKenzie was outstanding in the series with an average of 85.25 and a highest score of 155 not out, but then when you consider Villiers averaged 76 and Amla getting 61.40 and with all three players getting centuries and Villiers managed 217 not out, however this was in the high scoring first test. Six of the South Africa batsman managed to get an average of over 30 in this series and with the moaning already going on in England that they warm up games have been set up to help the South Africa team get runs, then there is a good chance that there could be many more runs coming the way of the visitors in this series against England.
South Africa Bowling
The best wicket taker for South Africa was Dale Steyn who managed to get 15 wickets and when you consider some of the batting scores in this series then that is not a bad haul. His econ rate was 3.56 but again that is not really surprising. Makhaya Ntini came in next with 10 wickets and an econ of 3.34 and a best haul of 3/18. Morne Morkel is the younger brother of current Durham player Albie Morkel and he also did very well in the series v India with 8 wickets and a econ rate of 3.57 so not only have South Africa got a very good Batting line up they are no mugs with the ball either.
Verdict
The first thing to say is that no matter what I think will happen, my money will be on England as I cannot bet on England to lose at anything (Sunderland yes, England no), it will only be a small bet mind you. Yet I do think that this England is lacking in some parts and that is mainly batting as I’ve already said both Colly and Bell are out of sorts at the moment and this means that you could find England two batsman down if they carry on their form.
On the plus side for England, Broad will hopefully carry on improving and Sidebottom wont let any one down. Anderson of course is the worry and if he plays well then England may well win the game but if he plays bad then you are looking for Sidebottom to carry the team.
As for South Africa this is a team that will cause England a lot of problems as there batting line up is excellent and it will be very interesting to see how the England bowlers cope with them.
For me the win here will be South Africa as not only have they got a cracking record at Lords where they have won the last three times since they once again became a test playing nation. I think that England are on the ropes at the moment and changes may be needed and this could be a long series for them.
The problem is that I don’t think it should be a four match series (better than three mind you) and I think that when playing a team like South Africa it should be over five games. So I’m staying clear of who will win the series but will do game by game instead and like I’ve said staring with a South Africa win (but I hope I’m wrong), but if you want to have a go at the entire series then you could do a lot worse than go with South Africa @ 2.00
Day One
England started really well and then it all seemed to wrong with the loss of three wickets in three overs. England at the moment are a very good 300/3 which means that if they keep it going and get a good score tomorrow then they could be well in control of this test match
Day Two
England have not got this game by the scruff of it's neck and from this position will not lose and the only question to now ask is if they can bowl out SA twice and win this game. 593 is a cracking score and of course with the batting line up SA have they are more than capable of matching it. So it's down to the England bowling attack now and see if they can take wickets to stop this game heading for a draw. I think my the end of day theee we will have a firm clue to were this game will be heading. I dont think now it will be SA win so this bet is now flat but hopefully there will still be some good cricket to come.
Day Three
Well I thought that day three would decide this match one way or the other but I did not think that SA would be all out and asked to follow on. So it now means that SA have to bat for two days just to save this test match and unless the rains comes this isnt going to happen. So its looking like 1-0 lead to England after they have hammered SA so far in this test match
The Pick :
South Africa to win the First Test
