NFL Football
2025-01-11 - Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Playoff Wild Card Game
Saturday 11th January 2025 - Scheduled 4:30pm
9:30pm (British Time)
Preview
They have long looked set to win the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (10-7) suffered through a disappointing end to the regular season meaning they were left with the Number 4 Seed in the AFC. That does mean a home game on Wild Card Weekend and the Texans will be opening the Playoff in 2025, which is also something they have become accustomed to doing.
Consecutive losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens have perhaps underlined how tough it will be for the Houston Texans to have a big post-season impact, but they will certainly be motivated by being set as the home underdog in this Wild Card game.
The Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) who are back in the NFL Playoff after missing out last season.
Jim Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for turning around the fortunes of a team that finished with a 5-12 record in the 2023 season, although he was taking over a Chargers team that had plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Still, the former San Francisco Head Coach and the man who led the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship last year deserves his respect and also for the way that Harbaugh has Coached in the Playoffs in his previous time in the NFL.
There is no doubting that this Los Angeles Chargers team is dangerous and they have won three straight games to move past Denver and Pittsburgh into the Number 5 Seed in the AFC.
You have to hope that all the players and staff have evacuated families that are affected by the wildfires raging in Los Angeles and that is important so the focus can be placed on winning this game and moving on to the Divisional Round. That won't be that easy, but once the game kicks off, the Chargers should all be pulling in the same direction and they will certainly feel they can get the better of an injury hit Houston team.
The majority of those injuries have been suffered on the Offensive side of the ball and so the Chargers will still be tested when they are trying to find some consistency in driving down the field.
Jim Harbaugh would love to see his team establish the run, but the Offensive Line have suffered a couple of injuries and JK Dobbins is not quite at his ultimate best at Running Back which has made that more difficult. Over the course of the season, the Texans Defensive Line have played the run pretty well and this test at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key with Houston looking to force Justin Herbert to beat them.
The Quarter Back is capable of doing that and he has looked much more like his old self in leading the Chargers to three straight wins- the passing numbers have really ramped up in those wins for Justin Herbert and he has been well protected when stepping back to test an opponent's Secondary.
He should be able to find one or two spaces in this Houston Secondary too, although the Texans are going to be fired up and have continued to play hard on the Defensive side of the ball to make up for the spark that has been missing when CJ Stroud and company have been driving.
It has been a tough season for CJ Stroud with both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell lost for the year and that has limited his passing options to Nico Collins. This has forced Houston to be more reliant on being able to run the ball through Joe Mixon to just keep the team on track to sustain drives and the problems with that were evident in the loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
However, it should be noted that the Ravens Defensive Line have been elite against the run and that is not really the case for the Los Angeles Chargers. In recent games teams have been forced to move away from the run as the Chargers have pulled out into big leads, but Houston will certainly feel that Mixon can help establish the run behind their Offensive Line in this one and that should give CJ Stroud the time he needs to find his makeshift Receiving corps down the field.
Being in front of the chains can just slow the Chargers pass rush for long enough to help the second year Quarter Back produce another big show on Wild Card Weekend, although CJ Stroud is not expected to have consistent success against this Chargers Secondary if in third and long situations. His passing numbers have been severely impacted by the loss of two top Receivers to play along with Nico Collins and the Texans will have to rely on running the ball and strong Defensive play to earn the upset.
They can do that in front of the home fans and it should be noted that those teams playing at home on Saturday in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs are on a 23-13-1 run against the spread.
Some will point out that Los Angeles have the better record, but those teams are just 11-18-1 against the spread in the last thirty tries when playing at the home of a team with fewer wins. The Number 4 Seed has also played well in the Wild Card Round in recent seasons and the feeling is that the Houston Texans match up pretty well with a Chargers team that have beaten Denver, New England and Las Vegas over the last three weeks and may be a touch over-rated.
Justin Herbert has been a very strong road favourite to back, but CJ Stroud has played well in the role of an underdog, which is a feature of a top Quarter Back. This is also the third road game in a row for the Los Angeles Chargers and that has been a really tough spot for teams in the NFL over the last twenty years, especially when the third game has been in the Playoff.
Having the hook on this number would have been really appealing, but backing the Houston Texans on the handicap looks the play as they hope to begin the NFL Playoff with an upset.
Prediction
Take the points with the home underdog.
The Pick :
Houston Texans 23-20 Los Angeles Chargers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Houston Texans + 3 Points at -115 with Bovada
