NFL Football
2025-01-12 - Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Playoff Wild Card Game
Sunday 12th January 2025 - Scheduled 8pm
1am (British Time)
Preview
They put themselves in a bit of a hole in Week 18, but a strong second half saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) beat the New Orleans Saints and win the NFC South yet again. That means another home Playoff game on Wild Card Weekend and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favourites having improved their Seeding to Number 3 after winning out to secure the Division.
If games lasted 59 minutes rather than 60 minutes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have been hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Instead it is the Washington Commanders (12-5) who will travel to Florida after a very successful season, one in which they have overachieved. The Commanders are not only back in the Playoff for the first time since the 2020 season, but they are also looking for a first post-season victory since 2005 when they were able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.
The most recent Playoff game was also against the Buccaneers in 2020, although that time Washington were beaten, and the Commanders are also looking for some revenge having lost in this Stadium in a blowout in Week 1 of the regular season.
Jayden Daniels was making his first NFL start at Quarter Back that day, but the rookie has grown as the season has moved from week to week and the Commanders look like they have their franchise player for the years ahead. Five wins in a row have just given Washington some momentum, although they will have a huge amount of respect for the Buccaneers.
Earlier in the season the Commanders might have leaned on the Offensive Line and expected to have ripped open some big plays on the ground- this is still going to be a big part of the game plan, especially with a dual-threat Quarter Back like Daniels to go with Brian Robinson Jr, but the Buccaneers Defensive Line finished the season in extremely strong fashion when it came to playing the run and they will feel they have an edge.
Jayden Daniels is helping the Offensive Line with his own scrambling abilities, but the pass protection has broken up around him in recent games and that is a concern if they are not playing in front of the chains. With a Head Coach like Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers will feel they can scheme things to just confuse the rookie Quarter Back, although the quality of Jayden Daniels means he is still likely going to make some plays with his arm to give the Commanders a chance.
However, to really pull the upset, the Washington Commanders will need the Defensive unit to come out and produce a big game.
The problem the Commanders will have is that they have not been able to stop the run all season and they are now going up against a strong Tampa Bay Offensive Line that have looked very good when it comes to blocking for Bucky Irving. Having the latter take over as the main Running Back has been a very good decision from Tampa Bay too and the Buccaneers should be able to rip open some big plays on the ground, which only bodes well for Baker Mayfield.
Replacing Tom Brady was not going to be easy, but Mayfield has played at a very good level in his time with Tampa Bay and he is very much appreciated around here. His numbers down the stretch played a big part in Tampa Bay winning the NFC South and the Quarter Back should be playing from third and manageable spots.
He will be under some duress from the Commanders pass rush, although being able to run the ball should mean that Baker Mayfield is only being asked to complete short yardage passes to keep the chains moving. Having Mike Evans means the downfield threat remains and the Buccaneers may have the balance Offensively to come through with a home win.
The trends are certainly going against Jayden Daniels with rookie Quarter Backs losing their last seven road Playoff games, while those making a first start in the post-season have tended to struggle. Washington have also missed the Playoff for at least two seasons and those teams have had issues when facing experienced foes in the Wild Card Round.
Tampa Bay are trying to overcome a poor run that Number 3 Seeds have been on when favoured by less than 4 points in this Round, but they are at home and the experience of this team will help. The Commanders did win more games than Tampa Bay, but those teams are 11-18-1 against the spread when playing on the road in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoff and this looks like one that the Buccaneers can win and cover.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-20 Washington Commanders
