Rugby League
2025-04-13 - Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 13th April 2025 - KO 1805 AEST
Newcastle Knights
The Newcastle Knights have had a promising start to the 2025 season under the guidance of coach Adam O'Brien going 2-2 through 4 matches. Newcastle won their only home match to date and are 1-2 away from home. This places the Knights at 9th on the NRL ladder, showcasing their potential to be serious top 8 contenders this season.
Key players like Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Tyson Frizell have been instrumental in their performances, with Ponga's dynamic play at fullback and Frizell's leadership in the forward pack driving the team's success.
However, the Knights have faced significant injury challenges. The absence of Saifiti, Cogger and James Schiller's concussion, all from last weekends match have certainly been setbacks. Despite these challenges, the team has shown resilience, with new recruits like Fletcher Sharpe stepping up. The Knights' defence has been excellent, conceding just 66 points through 4 matches 16.5ppg but they will need to maintain their consistency to counter the Tigers attacking threats.
Newcastle Knights Team News - lots of injury-enforced changes with Jack Cogger, James Schiller, Jacob Saifiti, Jack Hetherington and Adam Elliott all sidelined. Phoenix Crossland moves from hooker to halfback with Jayden Brailey the new hooker.
Kyle McCarthy on the wing and Brodie Jones joins the pack. Kai Pearce-Paul returns from suspension and Tyrone Thompson and Matt Arthur are new faces on the bench.
Wests Tigers
The Wests Tigers have had a mixed start to the 2025 season, currently sitting in the middle of the NRL ladder in 11th with a record of 2-3. Under the leadership of coach Benji Marshall, the Tigers have shown signs of improvement but have a long way to go to right the ship after 3 wooden spoons in a row. Key players like Jarome Luai and Apisai Koroisau have been pivotal, with Luai's playmaking abilities and Koroisau's experience being crucial for the team.
The Tigers' defence has been a major area of concern, often conceding points in crucial moments, however their average is not too bad at 21.2 ppg. Their recent performances, including a narrow loss to the New Zealand Warriors, highlight the need for improvement in their defensive structure, the Tigers are a young team and still on the up so will naturally improve with time on the park together.
Offensively, their ability to score points, as seen in their victories against teams like the Parramatta Eels 6-32 and the Dolphins 18-30, shows that they have the potential to compete.
Wests Tigers Team News – Jarome Luai returns, he is joined by Jeral Skelton and Samuela Fainu to strengthen the Tigers team.
Odds
Newcastle lead the betting odds, $1.65 to $2.25, the line 3.5 points and total points is 44.5
The Betting Verdict
The Knights have had the upper hand in recent encounters wining 7 in a row against the Tigers, including a narrow 10-8 victory earlier this season in round one. The overall H2H is 22-17 from 39 matches played and the ground stats show the Knights again have an advantage winning 55% at home, the Tigers 9-12 at Mcdonald Jones stadium.
When these teams met in round 1, it was an error ridden affair, with just 3 tries scored in the match. Wests led at HT 8-0 after a converted try and penalty put them in front but Newcastle were much better I the second half, scoring 10 points and keeping the Tigers scoreless to claim their opening match of the season and the Tigers certainly letting 2 points slip away.
Key matchups to watch include the battle between Kalyn Ponga and Jarome Luai. Both players are crucial to their teams' attacking setups, and their performance could significantly influence the outcome of the game. Additionally, the forward battle between Tyson Frizell and Apisai Koroisau will be a physical contest that could determine the dominance in the middle of the park.
Given the current form and head-to-head advantage and the home ground advantage, the Newcastle Knights are rightly starting as favourites. Their balanced attack and solid defence make them a formidable opponent for the Tigers. However, Wests are a much-improved club and have shown some promising signs which could surprise Newcastle here and stronger teams throughout this season.
Newcastle should win at home but with the injuries from last weekend and the return of key personnel for the Tigers, I see the Tigers to win here a great chance. you could also consider the 3.5 point head start to increase your chances too.
The Pick :
Newcastle Knights 16-20 Wests Tigers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take the Wests Tigers to win in a close match returning $2.25 with Bet365
