Rugby League
2025-08-22 - Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 22nd August 2025 - KO 1800 AEST
Penrith Panthers
Penrith’s aura of invincibility was slightly dented in Round 24 when they fell to Melbourne in extra time and what a game it was. That loss ended a nine-game winning streak and reminded the competition that even the Panthers can be edged when the margins are tight. Their standing now is precarious, sitting in fifth 12-1-8 with 3 matches to play and in danger of being shut out of the double chance in the finals if the Warriors can cling on to 4th place.
The match last weekend Against Melbourne was immense. Penrith were right on top at the break leading 12-4 only for the Storm to creep their way back thanks to 3 second half tries. Then step up Harry Grant in golden point who fooled everyone with a classy dummy for the field goal to go in under the posts for the winning try, what a match.
Penrith would have learnt a lot from this coming into September.
The potential return of Isaah Yeo is crucial. Yeo is not just their captain; he is the organiser in the middle who links the forwards and halves, and his absence last week was telling. If he takes the field in Mudgee, Penrith’s shape and discipline will be noticeably sharper.
Team News – Yeo is named in the extended squad and is likely to play, Alamoti is 18th man if needed.
Canberra Raiders
Canberra, by contrast, could hardly be in a better frame of mind. They had the luxury of a bye last week, a chance to rest and reset while other teams slugged it out just weeks out from the finals. Before that, they dismantled Manly 28-12 with an authority that underlined just how dangerous this Raiders team has become. Ricky Stuart has refused to tinker with a winning formula, naming the same seventeen that dominated two weeks ago. That places Canberra first 17-4 one win clear of the Storm and aiming for the second ever Minor premiership since, the only previous time was 1990.
No team changes again proving Rickys faith is justified, especially given the emergence of young five-eighth Ethan Strange, who has scored eight tries in his last nine games. Strange’s attacking flair has given Canberra a cutting edge, and with a forward pack that has been bullying opponents into submission, the Raiders look every bit a premiership contender. He is a superb youngster with a huge future ahead of him.
Team News – no changes named.
Odds
Penrith lead the betting, $1.65 to $2.30, the line is 4.5 points and combined points 40.5
The Betting Verdict
The rural town of Mudgee will host a clash that could shape the destiny of this year’s NRL season when the Penrith Panthers face the Canberra Raiders on Friday night at Glen Willow Oval. Finals football is only 3 weeks away, and both teams arrive with high stakes and different pressures. For Penrith, the reigning premiers, this is about hanging onto their dynasty and clawing back into the top four after last week’s golden-point thriller. For Canberra, the equation is more ambitious: win here, and they edge ever closer to a long-awaited minor premiership, their first since 1990.
The historical H2H between these two clubs leans heavily to Penrith, who have dominated Canberra in recent seasons. Overall though Penrith lead 27-23 with Canberra winning the past 2 encounters, the latest in round 1 this season 16-22, however the Panthers had won 5 straight over Canberra prior.
The neutral setting in Mudgee adds another bit of flavour here, as far as I can tell, neither team has played here before which means, Penrith lose the advantage of playing at their western Sydney fortress, and country venues often brings out a scrappier, more unpredictable contest. Canberra have relished similar occasions before, and their powerful forward rotation could thrive on a surface that is expected to be dry and fast.
Ultimately, this contest feels like a meeting of two storylines heading in opposite directions. Penrith are clinging to the aura that has defined their era, while Canberra are surging with momentum, looking to achieve the top spot for the first time in 35 years. If Yeo returns and steadies the Panthers, they can absolutely grind their way to victory. But if the Raiders get early joy through Strange and their strike weapons out wide, they may overwhelm a Penrith side still searching for its clinical edge.
The betting markets reflect the tension. Penrith, at around $1.65, are still priced as favourites on the back of their reputation and class, but the value is with Canberra, who sit at $2.30. With both sides capable of piling on points, the over 40.5 total looks a strong play for punters expecting an open affair.
Canberra Raiders to win in a tight and probable high-scoring encounter, with the 1–12 margin offering excellent value. Punters looking for a combined total angle should lean towards the over, as both teams have the weapons to push the scoreline beyond 42 points.
The Pick :
20-26 Canberra
