Rugby League

2025-04-21 - Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Monday 21st April 2025 - KO 1600 AEST

Wests Tigers

The Wests Tigers have shown signs of improvement under the leadership of coach Benji Marshall. After a challenging start to the season, the Tigers have managed to secure three wins from 6 matches, including a resounding 4-20 victory over the Newcastle Knights away from home.

This has boosted their confidence, and they currently sit in the mid table which is well ahead of previous seasons at the same stage. Wests scored 4 tries to one and other than improving their goal kicking Wests are looking like a side that may challenge for the top 8.

Huge story during the week about gun young half, Lachlan Galvin, who has declined a huge offer from the Tigers to pursue another contract elsewhere. The fallout is that Galvin has been dropped to the feeder team and his future is unknown as he is contracted until the end of 2026 – either way he is not playing in this match and may end up seeing out his contract in reserve grade.

Key players for the Tigers include captain Jarome Luai, who has been instrumental in their attacking plays, and Apisai Koroisau, whose leadership and experience have been vital. Jahream Bula, the team's top try-scorer, has also been in excellent form, providing a significant threat on both sides of the park.

Wests Tigers Team news – Galvin is out, Douehi goes to the halves, Naden returns and covers Douehi’s position in the centres and Luke Laulilii comes onto the wing.

Parramatta Eels

The Parramatta Eels have had a difficult start to the 2025 season, currently sitting at the bottom of the NRL ladder with a record of 1-5. Under the guidance of coach Jason Ryles, the Eels have struggled with consistency and have faced significant injury challenges. Their last outing was heavy defeat, 50-12 to the Canberra Raiders which highlighted the need for quick improvement in their defensive structure.

In the end Canberra ran in 8 tries to 2and thoroughly destroyed the Eels, highlighting just how important it is to get their chief playmaker back into the team. The return of key players like Mitchell Moses and Jack Williams will be a massive boost for the team. Moses, who will be playing his first game of the year after recovering from a stress fracture in his foot, is expected to provide much-needed leadership and playmaking abilities.

Parramatta Eels Team news – A number of changes for the Eels, Mitch Moses named to play his first game of the season. Prop Jack Williams is also back from a knee injury while Kelma Tuilagi returns in the back row and Matt Doorey and Luca Moretti come onto the bench.

Odds

The Tigers start as slight favourites, $1.65 to $2.15, combined points 47.5 and points start 1.5 points.

The Betting Verdict

The Tigers met the Eels twice in 2024, wests winning a close one 16-17 courtesy of a Sezer field goal but the Eels exacted revenge in their last game of 24, thumping the Tigers, 26-60. Overall H2H, 49 matches played and Parramatta are well in control here, 18-30 with one match drawn.

Key matchups to watch include the battle between Jarome Luai and Mitchell Moses. Both players are crucial to their teams' attacking setups, and their performance could significantly influence the outcome of the game. Additionally, the forward battle between Apisai Koroisau and Jack Williams will be a physical contest, one well worth watching closely.

This Easter Monday clash is an interesting challenge for both, the Tigers having to deal without one their best players in Galvin and the Eels having Moses return amongst a host of changes which makes for a huge amount of unknown.

Had Galvin not been dropped I feel as though Wests would have won this one by 10+, however even though the Tigers will still start as favourites, the Eels finally have their man in Mitchell Moses back in the 7 jersey which could be enough to turn the tables here.

Wests will be waiting to prove they can perform well without Galvin, and with the match being played at home, this has the chance potentially galvanizing the team into winning performance. On the other hand, Parramatta have key players back, potentially giving them a big chance to get their season back on track or that could make a mess of combinations and make for an error ridden showing.

Because there is so much uncertainty in my mind as to the result, taking a combined score option is a smart option. Looking back at all matches played since 2018, the 47.5 point threshold has gone over 9 out of the 13 matches played during that period, combining that with the typically poor defence these teams offer, going over 47.5 point is the best option.

As for the winner, Wests passion will be very high here at home, so taking Wests by 1-12 is a great choice. Wests by 6.