Rugby League

2025-04-25 - New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 25th April 2025 - KO 1805 AEST

New Zealand Warriors

The New Zealand Warriors have had a strong start to the 2025 season, currently sitting in 4th at the start of round 8 with a record of 4-2. Under the guidance of coach Andrew Webster, the Warriors have developed a balanced team with a strong defensive structure, something the coach copied since his arrival from Penrith.

Key players like Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Luke Metcalf had a slow start to the season but now the team is starting to gel and create more attacking opportunites, without effecting the defensive structure.

The Warriors recent victory over the Brisbane Broncos, where they held their opponents to a narrow 20-18 win in Golden Point, showcased their defensive prowess. The Warriors defence improved notably against the Broncos and even when the team went behind there was less panic which has been a blight on the Warriors for many years.

The warriors welcome back Nicoll-Klokstad from concussion and Rocco Berry from a one-game ban will further strengthen the team. The Warriors attacking threats, led by players like Taine Tuaupiki and Chanel Harris-Tavita, will be crucial in claiming a win here which on paper, should be an comfortable victory.

New Zealand Warriors Team news – Nicoll-Klokstad and Rocco Berry return, no other changes expected

Newcastle Knights

The Newcastle Knights have had a difficult start to the 2025 season, currently sitting 14th with a record of 2-4, sadly losing 4 in a row since starting the season with back to back victories.

Under the guidance of coach Adam O'Brien, the Knights have struggled with consistency and have faced significant injury challenges and an apparent lack of cohesion. Their recent heavy 34-14 loss to the Cronulla Sharks highlighted the need for improvement in their defensive structure.

However, the return of key players like Kalyn Ponga and Dylan Lucas will be a massive boost for the team. The inclusion of Lucas in the back row for this match and the imminent return of Jack Cogger from a finger injury will also add depth to the squad, Cogger is named on the extended bench and could make a surprise return.

The Knights attacking threats, led by players like Kalyn Ponga, Tyson Gamble and Bradman Best, will be crucial in this upcoming match to right the ship after 4 straight defeats.

Newcastle Knights Team News – Dylan Lucas is back to start in the forwards, Thomas Cant moves to the bench

Odds

The home team Warriors start as strong favourites, $1.35 to $3.35, the line is 8.5 points and combined points 44.5

The Betting Verdict

Looking back at all fixtures between these 2 clubs, New Zealand Warriors and the Newcastle Knights have been closely contested and this will be the 50th match between these clubs.

New Zealand lead the H2H 25-23 with one drawn match from the 49 played while the Warriors also have the upper hand playing at this venue, winning six of their last eight games played in Christchurch. Incredibly, the Knights have only won 2 of their past 17 matches played in New Zealand.

These teams met twice in 2024, the home team winning on each occasion, round 4 saw the Warriors win 20-12 in Auckland and the return fixture in round 9 the Knights prevailed 14-8. Those 2 matches bucked the trend of high scoring matches, many of which reached 40+ points in previous encounters.

Key matchups to watch include the battle between Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Kalyn Ponga. Both players are crucial to their teams attacking setups, and their performance could significantly influence the outcome of the game. Additionally, the forward battle between Kurt Capewell and Dylan Lucas will be a physical encounter, the Warriors certainly have an advantage in the forwards over Newcastle.

Given the current form and head-to-head advantage, the New Zealand Warriors are likely to come out on top in this encounter. Their attack is coming together now and the notable improvement in defence make them a formidable opponent for the Knights. However, Newcastle still have a potent backline and could easily surprise stronger teams.

The Knights will put up a fight, but New Zealand's overall strength and form should see them secure a comfortable victory here.

The fact the Knights have only ever won in NZ twice, their poor form and New Zealand clearly on the up gives me confidence the Warriors can win well here, likely by 10+ points making the margin betting the best option in this fixture.