Rugby League

2025-05-04 - Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Melbourne Storm v Wests Tigers
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 4th May 2025 - KO 1825 AEST

Melbourne Storm

The Melbourne Storm have had an impressive start to the 2025 season, through 7 matches played the Storm are currently sitting in second place on the NRL ladder with just two losses to date, 5-2.

The Storm have consistently showed a high level of skill and with their balanced team, a strong defensive structure and an even better attacking unit, clearly once again, Melbourne will be there or thereabouts when it comes to the finals in 2025.

Key returning players like Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cameron Munster have had injury effected recent seasons which are now hopefully behind them, have been pivotal, with Papenhuyzen's dynamic play at fullback a joy to watch.

The Storm's defence has been exceptional, conceding just 152 points from their 7 matches so far for and avg of 21ppg. Their recent victory over the South Sydney Rabbitohs, where they claimed a 24-16 win in front of a sold-out AAMI Park crowd, showcased their defensive prowess and even winning a little ugly.

The return of Tui Kamikamica from an ankle injury and the inclusion of Sua Fa'alogo on the wing will further strengthen what is already a strong team.

Melbourne Storm Team News - Tui Kamikamica is the only new face in the 17, starting from the bench.

Canberra Raiders

The Canberra Raiders have also had a strong start to the 2025 season, currently sitting one spot below Melbourne in third place with a great record of 6-2. The Raiders are a team that often wins ugly, forcing opposition teams into an arm wrestle and have really started playing well as a team, particularly in defence.

Joseph Tapine has been immense for Canberra, his presence often attracts an extra defender and now that Tapine has developed a offload in his game, he is a very important member of the team.

The Raiders defence will need to be at their scrambling best to combat the Storm's multiple attacking threats. Last weekends match against Redcliffe Dolphins highlighted the attacking skill Canberra possess, where they fought back from a 28-10 half-time deficit to win by 12, showcased their resilience and determination.

The inclusion of Josh Papalii on the bench and the return of Simi Sasagi as the 18th man will add depth to the squad. The Raiders attacking threats, led by players like Xavier Savage and Sebastian Kris, will be crucial in this upcoming match but it will need to be the defence that will win this one if there is to be an upset victory for the Raiders.

Canberra Raiders Team News – the Raiders have also named a settled line up with no changes announced.

Odds

Storm start favourites due to their amazing home record, $1.48 to $2.65, the line 5.5 points and total points is 47.5

The Betting Verdict

Historically, matches between the Melbourne Storm and the Canberra Raiders have been closely contested. The Storm have had the upper hand in recent encounters, winning six of their last eight games against the Raiders. With the overall H2H also well in favour of the Storm 38 – 16 from 54 matches played, however, the Raiders do have the ability to trouble the Storm and have beaten them at AAMI park more than other teams.

Key matchups to watch include the battle between the fullbacks Ryan Papenhuyzen and Kaeo Weekes. Both players are crucial to their teams attacking setups, with Papenhuyzen knocking on the door for Origin he certainly has experience on his side over Weekes however, Kaeo is slowly getting to grips with first grade and is an excellent support runner. Additionally, the forward battle between Joseph Tapine and Tui Kamikamica will be a great match up amongst many in the forwards.

The most recent meeting between these clubs was about two thirds of the way through last season in round 17. Melbourne winning a close one 16-6 at AAMI park. With every match being played at the one ground for magic round, Melbourne or Canberra do not have the home advantage with a more or less neutral ground.

This is also the last match of 8 and the third of the 3 matches being played on Sunday. In previous years the pitch can get very cut up and I am sure we will see the same for this fixture making the conditions that much harder than the teams playing on Friday and Saturday.

Of note, the last 13 matches played between these clubs, only 2 of those have exceeded the set target of 47.5 points, one at 48 and the other 50 points. With the ground likely to be cut up and 2 very good defensive teams going at it, it looks likely that the combined points will no exceed the 47.5 point threshold here and is the suggested option.

As for the match result, the current form and head-to-head advantage for the Melbourne Storm make them the probable victors, and I doubt it will be a blowout making the 1-12 option a nice little tempter to finish the weekend too.