NCAA Football
2025-09-20 - Michigan State Spartans at USC Trojans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 4
Saturday 20th September 2025 - Scheduled 10:30pm
3:30am (British Time)
Preview
Lincoln Riley is in his fourth year as Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0) and there is pressure on him to get things moving in a positive direction. His team won 11 games in his first season in charge, but that has dropped to 8 games in 2023 and 7 games in 2024 and the move to the Big Ten Conference means a much tougher route to earn a spot in the Playoff.
The positive is that four Big Ten teams were invited into the twelve team College Football Playoff last season and the USC Trojans have made a positive start to the season. They have already secured a road win in the Conference, which is that much tougher considering the vast range covered within the Conference schedule, and the Trojans are playing with real confidence.
However, there will be no doubt that this game represents the toughest test so far this season when the USC Trojans host the Michigan State Spartans (3-0).
Being in the Big Ten means the Trojans have a very tough schedule beginning this week, but the benefit of hosting is that this late kick off time should give the home team another advantage.
They will have plenty of respect for Michigan State Head Coach Jonathan Smith and USC fans will be familiar with his work with the Oregon State Beavers. After the team won 11 games in 2021, the last three years have been difficult, but the first season under Smith in 2024 showed plenty of positive signs and three straight wins to open this season means expectations are beginning to be increased at Michigan State.
Last season they finished 3-6 in Big Ten play, while the Spartans have not faced any team of real note before this huge statement test.
Like any team in the Conference, Michigan State will have a tough run of games coming up and they have to hope that the three games played are enough preparation for the kind of opponents they will be facing in the Big Ten.
The Spartans will find it tough to run the ball with any consistency against this Trojans Defensive Line and that will mean having to lean on Quarter Back Aiden Chiles to try and keep the team moving. Michigan State have not really impressed when facing weaker opposition compared with the USC Trojans, and so it will make it tough to believe that the road team can have a lot of consistent success when it comes to pounding the ball on the ground.
Aiden Chiles has opened the season with some positive numbers, but he did have 13 Touchdown passes and 11 Interceptions last season and this is going to be the first game where the pressure is on his shoulders. Playing out of third and long is tough and that will only be more difficult when you think of the pass rush pressure the Trojans have been able to generate early this season.
He will also be trying to throw against a ball-hawking Secondary and there is a feeling that Chiles could be forced into a turnover or two that really allows the USC Trojans to break the game open.
Once again all eyes will be on the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball... And the Trojans have to be very confident in what they are running out.
Credit has to be given to the Spartans Defensive Line for the early successes put on the board, but they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one that the Trojans will be trotting out. In the first three wins, USC have crushed teams on the ground and they have picked up 7 yards per carry, which in turn has made things very comfortable for Jayden Maiava at Quarter Back.
Jayden Maiava will be encouraged by the numbers being allowed by the Michigan State Secondary and he has been given plenty of time by the USC Offensive Line when dropping back to throw the ball. With the Receivers around him, Maiava is expected to have another quality showing and he can help the USC Trojans push forward and put a statement win on the board.
Since the start of the 2024 season, USC are 6-0 against the spread as the home favourite.
In recent years, the Michigan State Spartans are 1-7-1 against the spread as underdogs of more than 17 points and they may struggle to keep up with the hosts in this Week 4 clash.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite in this Big Ten Conference game.
The Pick :
USC Trojans 38-17 Michigan State Spartans
