Italian Serie A
2025-09-21 - Torino vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Italy (28,177)
Sunday, 21 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Torino Team News
Torino is an awful team to watch as all you see is a rigid defence that never loses order. At least this is the case when they face big favourites. They suffered a humiliating 5-0 defeat at Inter in the opening round but then turtled up against Fiorentina and Roma, and will undoubtedly do the same here.
Torino scored to take the 0-1 win in Rome, but don't think too much of it. Roma was toothless and Torino had literally one counter attack after refusing to leave their own half, and this one was scored.
At least, because of seeing Torino in three consecutive matches against big sides, and now a fourth, we now know for sure how will Torino approach such matches. Defend in own half without any shame whatsoever, wait patiently for a counter attack for 90 minutes if needed.
Atalanta Team News
The former Torino manager Ivan Juric is now in charge of Atalanta, with little success. Of three winnable matches, against Pisa, Parma and Lecce, Atalanta only won the one against Lecce, 4-1. And then, a cold shower in Paris as PSG won 4-0 in the Champions League opener. Could have been 3-0 at half-time if Barcola scored the spot kick in the 44th minute.
Atalanta is in trouble and it's no accident. Juric is not a good coach for an offensive team as his rigid ways hold the team back, and on the other hand the roster is now depleted of quality offensive players. Ademola Lookman, who wanted to leave but eventually didn't, was half of this team's offense, and Mateo Retegui was the other half. Now it seems Lazar Samardzic and Nikola Krstovic will start as the forward duo here. That's Udinese and Lecce quality.
To make matters worse, the soul of this team, Charles De Ketelaere, is nursing a minor injury and could either miss this game altogether or start on the bench.
Probable Lineups
Torino (3-4-2-1): Israel - Coco, Maripan, Ismajli - Lazaro, Asslani, Casadei, Biraghi - Ngonge, Vlasic - Simeone. Coach Baroni.
Atalanta (3-4-1-2): Carnesecchi - Kossounou, Hien, Djimsiti - Bellanova, Musah, De Roon, Zalewski - Pasalic - Samardzic, Krstovic. Coach Juric.
Ademola Lookman will be on the bench after apologizing to Juric and finally joining the team practice this Thursday. The forward was frozen out in August as he was trying to force a transfer to Inter.
The Betting Market
The price on Atalanta is 2.20 and this is actually quite tempting, if you're counting on the following: Atalanta will do the opposite of what's expected, will bounce back from poor form and the poor CL outing, Lookman will come in from the bench to score a brace and everything will be lovely jubbly.
On the other end, you can get up to 3.35 on Torino straight up, or 2.30 on Draw No Bet / Asian Handicap 0, if you believe Torino will again make good use of the single counter attack they'll have in the game.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.67, as the bookmakers got the memo that Torino players stack their own half and refuse to go forward. The fans that happen to be on the wrong half of the stadium in each 45-minute period will be watching nothing but grass.
The Betting Verdict
Everything points to a hard-fought 0-1 win for Atalanta, because that's the most likely outcome of a match that's played on one half of the pitch. The 2.20 on Atalanta makes sense.
What's even more certain is the low-scoring nature of this game. Unless the unthinkable happens and this match erupts into a goal fest because Torino scored early and scored first, this is 0-0 at half-time. Someone will win it with a single goal.
Incredibly, in last 12 meetings, from 2019 onwards, only one match had less than three goals - the 1-1 in Bergamo in May this year.
It is for this reason that we'll be cautious about the under and will opt for a high-priced Atalanta win.
The Pick :
Torino 0-1 Atalanta
