Italian Serie A
2025-09-21 - Cremonese vs Parma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona, Lombardy, Italy (20,641)
Sunday, 21 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cremonese Team News
Cremonese is still unbeaten, with two wins and a draw so far, but this side really should have lost the visit to Hellas Verona in the previous round as they conceded 1.46 xG without doing much themselves. The match ended 0-0.
Now they return home, where they played one match so far. In the 3-2 win against Sassuolo they held a 2-0 half-time lead, allowed the visitors to come back to 2-2, and then scored a winner deep in injury time from a penalty kick.
In other words, Cremonese's defence isn't as tough as you'd think. They concede an average xG of 1.55, seemingly regardless of who the opponent is and where the game is played. Luck favours the bold and that's exactly the story of Cremonese's season so far. Expect a steep decline from this side very soon.
Parma Team News
Now this is a side that experienced such a decline after the initial spirited entry into Serie A, and never recovered. While we can understand that the difficult schedule in the opening two rounds hurt Parma early on - Juventus and Atalanta - there is no excuse for losing cleanly 2-0 at Cagliari in round three.
Parma had more of the game there, with an xG of whopping 1.96, which came from several one-on-ones with the goalkeeper and nets wide open from long shots. None of that was scored, obviously. On the other end, Cagliari literally pushed the ball into the net twice after goalkeeper saves from the resulting rebounds.
However, if Parma continue to play like this they are bound to score once or twice in every game. Unless the failed goalscoring opportunities are a symptom of not having a clinical striker, as Cutrone isn't one. If this is the case, then the issues will persist throughout the season. We'll see.
Probable Lineups
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Collocolo, Grassi, Vandeputte, Pezzella - Sanabria, Vazquet. Coach Nicola.
Parma (3-5-2): Suzuki - Circati, Troilo, Valenti - Delprato, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Cuesta.
The Betting Market
The bookmakers are expecting a low-scoring game, as indicated by the odds of 1.66 on Under 2.5 Goals. This doesn't seem like what will play out here, so there's a lot of value in the 2.20 on the Over.
Cremonese is slightly favoured here, for the home field advantage, with 2.65 compared to 2.80 on Parma.
The Betting Verdict
Teams tend to look a lot different when they face opponents of different strength and of different playing styles. So the question to ask here is how do Cremonese and Parma look like in matches against fellow relegation candidates.
What happened when Parma met Cagliari and what happened when Cremonese met Sassuolo? The latter had five goals, while the Parma game against Cagliari was wide open and offered numerous clear-cut chances to score. We expect something similar to happen here, and we think Parma will find a way to score their second goal of the season. Cremonese will likely score too, which means the BTTS bet should be a good one to make here.
The Pick :
Cremonese 1-2 Parma
